The narrative surrounding XRP has rarely been more fractured. On one side, the network is undergoing its most significant architectural overhaul in years, with a rebranded core client and a pivotal upgrade to its automated market maker looming in June. On the other, the token itself is plumbing depths not seen since late 2023, trading at $1.16 after shedding roughly 38% over the past twelve months. The gap between infrastructural promise and market reality has never yawned wider.
XRP has now decisively broken below its 50-day moving average of $1.36 and sits a full 28% beneath the 200-day line at $1.61. The relative strength index has slipped to 32.6, brushing the oversold threshold. Polymarket, the prediction platform, assigns a 41% probability that the token will fall to $1.00 or lower in June, while the chance of a rebound to $1.40 stands at just 22%. The odds of XRP reclaiming its all-time high of $3.84 before the end of 2024 have collapsed from 41% in January to a mere 14%.
Yet behind the price chart, development activity is accelerating. The core software, previously known as rippled, is being renamed to “xrpld” in version 3.2.0, scheduled for mid-June. The change severs the nominal link to Ripple the company. Node operators will see memory requirements drop by up to 40%, according to preliminary tests. Token holders need take no action. Separately, the community is debating an update to the Automated Market Maker that would introduce concentrated liquidity, a model that dominates much of the DeFi ecosystem. The proposal requires an 80% validator vote to activate.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?
The tokenisation push is also gaining institutional traction. Ripple Prime, the prime brokerage arm formerly known as Hidden Road, is among the institutions preparing for the DTCC’s tokenisation service launch in July 2026. The initial phase will involve live workflows with real data and institutional processes, with a broader rollout scheduled for October. BlackRock, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Circle are also participating. The XRP Ledger is explicitly named in a DTCC patent as a compatible platform, though the DTCC has so far only confirmed Stellar as a supported blockchain. Meanwhile, the XRP Ledger already hosts over $3 billion in tokenised real-world assets, and a pilot project with JPMorgan is pushing further into money market funds and tokenised equities.
Institutional demand for the asset itself remains steady, if subdued. Spot XRP exchange-traded funds have attracted net inflows of $1.43 billion since their approval in November 2025, with May alone contributing $131.9 million. That persistent buying, however, has done little to arrest the slide.
The short side is dangerously crowded. Bearish bets outnumber bullish positions by a ratio of nine to one, setting the stage for a potential squeeze if a catalyst emerges. The most closely watched trigger is the CLARITY Act, which has cleared committee and now sits on the U.S. Senate calendar awaiting a floor vote. No date has been set for debate. Given the extreme positioning, a sudden legislative breakthrough could force rapid short covering and send the price sharply higher. For now, the market is waiting.
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