The close of 2025 presented a paradox for Ripple and its associated digital asset, XRP. Despite a landmark settlement in the ongoing SEC lawsuit and the successful launch of the first U.S. spot ETFs, including one from asset manager Franklin Templeton, investor sentiment has plunged to new lows. Instead of a year-end surge, the market is witnessing a sell-off that has pushed prices to their lowest point in a year, even as new institutional products come online.
Technical Indicators Signal Deepening Decline
A review of the charts underscores the current bearish pressure. On Friday, XRP traded at $1.81, establishing a fresh 52-week low. This move saw it break decisively below a key support band that had previously held between $1.85 and $1.90. The cryptocurrency now sits more than 40% below its 52-week peak of $3.04.
For traders, one minor technical consolation may be the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Currently reading 28.8, it indicates the asset is in oversold territory, which can sometimes precede a short-term bounce. However, the dominant trend remains downward. Analysts note that if selling persists, the next significant technical support level to watch is around $1.70.
Whale Activity Drives Sustained Selling Pressure
The primary force behind this depreciation appears to be large-scale holders, often called “whales.” Data suggests these major investors have offloaded approximately 1.18 billion XRP tokens over the past four weeks. This immense supply is hitting a market that lacks corresponding buying power.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XRP?
Speculative interest has largely evaporated. Trading volume for XRP futures contracts has collapsed from about $5.8 billion in the summer of 2025 to a mere $250 million recently. This absence of leveraged speculative demand has left the market without the necessary strength to absorb the consistent selling from long-standing large holders.
Fundamental Progress Fails to Offset Capital Outflows
This price weakness creates a stark contradiction with the positive fundamental developments of the past year. The resolution of the SEC’s legal challenge and the introduction of spot-based ETFs were widely anticipated to be catalysts for significant price appreciation.
The new ETFs, notably, have seen respectable inflows, gathering around $1.2 billion in assets under management and performing well relative to other crypto fund products. Yet, this nascent institutional interest has proven insufficient to counterbalance the capital being withdrawn by established large holders. The inflow from new, regulated vehicles is simply not matching the outflow from the old guard.
Looking ahead, analysts such as Standard Chartered’s Geoffrey Kendrick maintain long-term optimistic price targets, with projections as high as $8 for 2026. For now, however, the market is firmly focused on navigating the current downturn, caught between a promising regulatory future and present-day selling pressure.
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