The calendar has circled August 24, 2026. That morning, before US markets open, XPeng will release its second-quarter earnings — and the conference call follows at 8 a.m. Eastern, 10 p.m. in Beijing. The date itself is set in stone. What remains deeply uncertain is whether the numbers will validate the bull case, confirm the bear case, or land somewhere in between.
Investors have been punished for optimism all year. The shares closed Monday at 10.76 euros, down 4.61 percent on the session, after July delivery figures disappointed. That puts the stock just a hair above its 52-week low of 10.18 euros, set in late June. Year-to-date, the equity has shed roughly 42 percent, and it trades 13.37 percent below its 50-day moving average. The 200-day average sits at 15.70 euros — the stock is about 31 percent beneath that line, a stark illustration of how thoroughly sentiment has soured.
The July Puzzle: A Record Milestone Hiding a Monthly Slump
Here’s the contradiction at the heart of the current narrative. XPeng delivered 38,027 vehicles globally in July — up 4 percent year over year, and enough to push cumulative deliveries past the 1.2 million mark worldwide. That’s a genuine corporate milestone. Yet the month-over-month picture is far less flattering. During the second quarter, the company averaged roughly 103,000 units per month; July’s tally represents a dramatic step down from that pace.
Management’s explanation: the ramp-up of the new MONA series, specifically the budget SUV L03, is still in its early innings. The company has begun handing over the first L03 units to customers, but the nationwide sales push in China is only expected to gather real momentum in August as it works through a backlog of orders. In other words, the constraint is supply, not demand.
Skeptics aren’t buying it. They point to cumulative January-to-July deliveries, which are down 12.78 percent versus the same period last year — a sign, they argue, that the recovery story is cooling rather than accelerating.
Barclays Sharpens Its Knife
The July numbers triggered an immediate response from the sell side. Barclays cut its price target on XPeng from $16 to $15 and maintained an “Underweight” rating, citing growing doubts about the company’s ability to defend profitability in China’s brutally competitive EV market.
The broader analyst community has turned even more pessimistic. Consensus forecasts for 2026 earnings have swung from a profit of 1.08 yuan per share to a projected loss of 2.73 yuan per share. Full-year revenue estimates have been trimmed from 97 billion yuan to 93.9 billion yuan.
The Cannibalization Question: The Single Metric That Matters
For the short-term share price, one question dominates all others: Will the accelerated L03 ramp-up on August 24 demonstrate genuine margin improvement — or will the new model simply eat into sales of the existing Mona M03 sedan?
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying XPeng?
Deutsche Bank has flagged this risk explicitly. The bank models monthly L03 deliveries of around 15,000 units in 2026, rising to roughly 150,000 vehicles in 2027. But it also reports that new orders for the Mona M03 have dropped about 40 percent since the L03 launched. The two models’ price bands overlap too heavily. If the new SUV is largely replacing existing sales rather than adding to them, the growth story loses much of its financial substance.
The Bull Case: Overwhelming Demand and New Frontiers
The optimists have plenty of ammunition. Dealers report more than 50,000 non-cancellable orders for the L03. The model also set a company record for single-day test drives at its launch weekend — and lifted test-drive volume across the entire lineup to an all-time high.
June offered a glimpse of the upside: 40,126 vehicles delivered, up 15.9 percent year over year and the strongest month of 2026. Meanwhile, XPeng is pushing into adjacent businesses. CEO He Xiaopeng personally completed a full ride in the company’s robotaxi test in Guangzhou as its first internal passenger. And for the flying-car unit Xpeng Aeroht, the company has hired JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley to prepare a separate Hong Kong listing.
The average analyst price target stands at 19.46 euros — roughly 86 percent above current levels. With the relative strength index at 35.5, the stock is technically oversold. If the August 24 report shows margin stabilization, a re-rating from these depressed levels becomes plausible.
The Bear Case: A Stock With No Technical Support
The counter-argument is equally compelling. The July growth was explicitly capped by L03 availability, not by exhausted demand — meaning the ramp-up remains incomplete and unproven at scale. Beyond the Deutsche Bank cannibalization concern, the chart offers no comfort. The stock sits 57.05 percent below its 52-week high of 24.40 euros. Annualized 30-day volatility of 43.32 percent tells you the market still treats this as a high-risk asset. If the Q2 report shows compressed margins alongside rising volumes, a retest of 10.18 euros — or a break below — becomes the base case.
Two Signals Beyond the Earnings Print
Beyond the quarterly numbers themselves, two developments bear watching. First, the pace of the nationwide L03 rollout — if delivery momentum holds and the model proves to be additive rather than cannibalistic, the case for a technical and fundamental bottom strengthens considerably. Second, progress on the Aeroht Hong Kong listing, which would give XPeng a new funding vehicle and a separate public-market story.
The stock is trading well below both its 200-day average and analyst targets, and the oversold conditions suggest a bounce is possible. But the market has so far refused to price in the resolution of the supply bottleneck. August 24 will show whether that skepticism was warranted — or whether XPeng’s believers were simply early.
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