Nel ASA has ended months of legal uncertainty with Iwatani Corporation of America, but the relief is being overshadowed by a fresh competitive assault in a key growth market. The Norwegian electrolyser maker’s shares remain pinned near €0.20, down roughly 20% on the month, as investors weigh the cost of peace against the price of market share loss.
The company will pay $7.5 million to resolve a dispute dating back to February 2024 over hydrogen refuelling stations in California. Cavendish Hydrogen, a former subsidiary, is contributing an additional sum. The settlement preserves the business relationship with Iwatani and eliminates future legal bills, freeing up management bandwidth that has been tied up in litigation for more than a year. At the end of the first quarter, Nel held about 1.4 billion Norwegian kroner in cash, giving it room to pursue new orders while the legal distraction evaporates.
Yet no sooner had that risk been neutralised than a more structural threat landed. On 7 July, Thyssenkrupp Nucera announced a broad cooperation with the Indian state-owned engineering group BHEL. The partners will jointly manufacture alkaline electrolysers for the Indian market, with Nucera progressively shifting module production to the subcontinent. Nel and Nucera compete on the same alkaline technology platform, meaning the alliance amounts to a direct attack on Nel’s pricing power in one of the world’s fastest-growing hydrogen theatres.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nel ASA?
The sector-wide climate offers little comfort. Capital-intensive hydrogen stocks continue to suffer from investor scepticism about margins and financing costs. FuelCell Energy raised $200 million through a share sale and saw its stock immediately sink into double-digit losses. Plug Power secured a 50 MW order for the Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub in Australia, yet its shares also fell on the announcement — a sign that even positive operational news is being drowned out by profit-ability worries.
Nel’s own order pipeline is showing faint signs of life. After the first quarter closed, the company booked a $7 million contract, and outgoing CEO Håkon Volldal has flagged more deals expected by mid-year. But the leadership vacuum complicates the sales effort: Volldal will leave the company by early January 2027 to join Elopak, and the board has yet to name a successor. The ongoing search, combined with the intensified competition from Nucera-BHEL, raises the stakes for the half-year report due on 15 July.
Technically, the stock is barely holding above oversold territory. The relative-strength index is near 35, and the share price of €0.20–€0.21 is just below the 200-day moving average of €0.22. A convincing rebound would require both a clear CEO succession plan and tangible evidence that the order pipeline is rebuilding. Without them, the next leg lower looks increasingly difficult to avoid.
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