You don’t need to be Ben Campbell from the movie “21” to win in gambling using mathematics. You don’t have to attend every maths class you had in high school and college to “beat the system.” All you need to do is get the basics and grasp the fundamentals to get that prize! That’s why we are here. So let’s help you win that chicken dinner.
Only three basic principles underlie every form of gambling out there. Let it be blackjack, craps, baccarat, or the occasional online slots. Definite probabilities, expected values, and volatility indexes elucidate how these games work and how people like Ben Campbell beat their competition.
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Probability is a numerical description of an event’s likelihood to occur. For example, there is a 1 in 52 chance of getting a king of hearts on your first draw, and the more cards are drawn, increases your probability of you getting that king of hearts.
To put that into perspective, getting a pair of aces in poker yields a higher probability of winning than only getting a pair of nines or getting two different cards entirely. In addition, skilled players understand the associated probabilities of each hand, thus giving them a rough estimate of how that particular hand will lead them to victory.
Next on the list are expected values (EV). Gambling isn’t only about probabilities but also about the amount of money one can theoretically win! That amount of money you can expect to win is what we call expected value. EV is mathematically defined as the sum of all possible probabilities multiplied by the associated gains (or losses).
For example, when a gambler receives 100 pesos every time, the dealer flips heads and loses 100 if the dealer flips tails. The EV is considered zero because the players have no monetary advantage or disadvantage if the game is played repeatedly.
Unlike if the gambler receives 150 pesos for heads but retains the 100 peso penalty every time the tail is drawn, EV would be positive, and the gambler will have a higher chance of winning.
EV is important in gambling because it tells players how much they can expect to win. Therefore, gauging whether or not to bet on a negative EV is essential for every gambler out there.
Lastly, we have volatility indexes. VI tells a player the chances of earning more or less than the EV. The volatility index quantifies how lucky a player is. This tells each player that high-volatility games vary greatly between what the players expect and its actual outcomes. Thus, Volatility Indexes can play in great volume. Moreover, it can intelligently win even negative EV games!
In conclusion, assessing the risks of each round can quantify gambling. Maths can help you achieve your goal, but it is far from the only tool seasoned players need to win. Gambling is an art and a science; only the best can use both to their fullest potential.