Novo Nordisk’s oral Wegovy pill has raced ahead of Eli Lilly’s rival Foundayo in the early weeks of US launch, but the real test for the Danish drugmaker’s pipeline may come this weekend when it unveils Phase-3 data on CagriSema. The juxtaposition of a promising commercial debut and a critical scientific conference is giving investors competing narratives to weigh.
Prescription data show clear lead – with caveats
According to the Fierce Pharma Oral GLP-1 Tracker, the Wegovy pill had notched roughly 67,000 prescriptions by its seventh week on the market, compared with about 11,700 for Foundayo over the same period after its own launch. Jefferies compiled those figures, while Citi arrived at slightly higher absolute numbers – 146,000 for Wegovy and 16,000 for Foundayo in the week ending May 22 – but confirmed the same magnitude of advantage.
Both banks caution that the underlying IQVIA data may systematically undercount tele-health activity, and Jefferies explicitly describes the weekly totals as estimates. Still, the gap is substantial enough to suggest Novo Nordisk is capturing early mindshare among prescribers.
The oral Wegovy pill reached the US on January 5, 2026, and generated 1.3 million scripts in the first quarter alone, surpassing 2 million total since launch. First-quarter revenue from the product hit 2.256 billion Danish kroner, and Novo Nordisk called it the highest-volume GLP-1 launch in US history. Those results prompted the company to lift its full-year guidance for 2026, predicting adjusted sales and operating profit growth of between -4% and -12% – a range buoyed by stronger expectations for its GLP-1 franchise.
ADA conference looms as pipeline catalyst
From June 5 to 8, Novo Nordisk will present around 40 abstracts at the American Diabetes Association’s scientific sessions in New Orleans. The centrepiece is Phase-3 data from the REIMAGINE programme for CagriSema, a fixed-dose combination of semaglutide and the amylin analogue cagrilintide. The company is also set to show Phase-2 results for Zenagamtid, a weekly injectable GLP-1/amylin candidate.
On June 7, management plans a dedicated R&D investor day to walk analysts through the clinical findings. How the market reacts to CagriSema’s efficacy and safety profile will likely shape the stock’s trajectory in the weeks ahead.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Novo Nordisk?
Buybacks provide underlying support
While the stock has fallen roughly 47% from its 52-week high of 70.13 euros, Novo Nordisk has been aggressively repurchasing shares. Since May 6, the company has been buying back daily under a tranche capped at about 11.2 billion Danish kroner, part of a broader annual programme of 15 billion kroner that runs through February 2027.
In the final week of May, Novo Nordisk purchased roughly 210,000 B-shares each day. On May 29 alone, it bought exactly 210,000 shares at an average price of 293.42 kroner, for a daily outlay of 61.6 million kroner.
The buybacks do not appear to have staunched the stock’s broader decline, which reflects mounting competition in the GLP-1 and obesity market. Novo Nordisk also recently launched a reformulated oral semaglutide tablet in the US under the Ozempic brand for type 2 diabetes, in strengths of 1.5 mg, 4 mg and 9 mg – bioequivalent to the earlier Rybelsus tablets but smaller in size. A higher 25 mg dose is awaiting FDA decision by year-end 2026.
Technicals and valuation
At 36.84 euros, the stock has rallied roughly 21% from its late-March trough of 30.48 euros but remains almost 12% below its 200-day moving average. The relative strength index of 71.6 signals short-term overbought conditions, suggesting a pullback could be near.
The current price-to-earnings ratio stands at about 10.3, a sharp discount to the multiples seen in 2024. The dividend for fiscal 2025 was 11.70 kroner per share. For now, investors are pricing in headwinds, but the early prescription strength of the Wegovy pill – and whatever data emerge from New Orleans – could tip the balance. Foundayo has been on the market for less than two months; its eventual formulary position and tele-health penetration will determine whether Novo Nordisk’s head start is durable or fleeting.
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