As Coinbase Global, Inc. prepares to release its quarterly figures, a wave of downward revisions from major financial institutions is sweeping across Wall Street. The cryptocurrency exchange’s stock, which has already declined by nearly 30% since the start of the year, faces renewed scrutiny ahead of its report scheduled for Thursday, February 12, 2026. Analysts cite weaker trading volumes, declining crypto asset prices, and reduced stablecoin revenue as primary concerns.
Key Analyst Revisions Take Center Stage
Leading the adjustments, JPMorgan strategist Ken Worthington significantly reduced his price target for Coinbase shares on Monday. The new target of $290 represents a 27% cut from the previous $399. Despite this substantial reduction, the firm maintains its “Overweight” rating on the stock, noting the target still implies considerable upside from the current trading level of approximately $165.
JPMorgan’s estimates for the fourth quarter include adjusted EBITDA of $734 million, down from $801 million in Q3. The bank anticipates spot trading volume to reach $263 billion, with stablecoin revenue contributing an estimated $312 million. Furthermore, the derivatives exchange Deribit, acquired in August 2025, is projected to have added about $117 million in transaction revenue from an estimated trading volume of $586 billion.
Projected Q4 Metrics (JPMorgan):
– Adjusted EBITDA: $734 million
– Total Trading Volume: $263 billion
– Stablecoin Revenue: $312 million
– Deribit Transaction Revenue Contribution: $117 million
Broader Skepticism Emerges from Research Firms
The cautious sentiment extends beyond JPMorgan. Analysts at Barclays, led by Benjamin Budish, project EBITDA figures roughly 10% below consensus, attributing the shortfall to softer retail client activity and lower blockchain rewards revenue. Their volume estimate stands at approximately $261 billion.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Coinbase?
Compass Point Research offered a more critical assessment. Analyst Ed Engel highlighted risks within the subscription and services business segment, warning that overall revenue remains tightly correlated to cryptocurrency price movements. This follows a prior adjustment from Citigroup on February 6, which lowered its price target to $400. Coinbase shares currently trade about 65% below their all-time high.
Credit Product Liquidations Add to Pressure
Separate from trading performance, Coinbase is confronting challenges in its lending operations. Data from Dune Analytics reveals that over $170 million in collateral was liquidated on the Morpho decentralized finance platform in the past week, impacting around 3,300 users. Coinbase had initially launched Bitcoin-backed loans in early 2025, later expanding the offering to include Ethereum, with individual client credit limits as high as $5 million.
Executive Wealth Reflects Market Downturn
The sector-wide downturn has also impacted the personal fortune of Coinbase co-founder and CEO Brian Armstrong. According to Bloomberg, he has fallen off the list of the world’s 500 wealthiest individuals. His net worth has contracted by over $10 billion from its peak of $17.7 billion seven months ago.
All Eyes on Thursday’s Report
The company is set to disclose its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results after the market closes on Thursday. On average, market experts are forecasting earnings per share of $1.15 on revenue of $1.85 billion, figures that would represent a notable decrease from the previous year’s performance.
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