Voestalpine posted a near-138% surge in net profit to €424 million for the 2025/26 fiscal year, alongside an EBITDA of €1.5 billion, yet the stock has dropped 12.6% over the past month. The disconnect reflects a tangle of headwinds: US import levies, global steel oversupply, and a chart breakdown below key moving averages.
On Wednesday 1 July, shareholders gather at the Design Center Linz for the 34th ordinary annual general meeting. The board is proposing a dividend increase from €0.60 to €0.75 per share. To receive the payout, investors must hold the shares by 8 July; the ex-dividend date is 9 July. Approval is widely expected given the strong earnings performance.
That same day, the European Union’s revamped steel safeguard regime kicks in. Annual duty-free import quotas drop to roughly 18.3 million tonnes – almost half the 2024 level – and any surplus volumes will face a 50% tariff, doubled from the previous 25%. From October 2026, importers must also prove where the steel was melted and cast. Voestalpine views these measures as structural tailwinds for its Steel Division, reinforced by the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which together aim to improve competitive conditions in the 2026/27 business year.
Those regulatory gains are partly offset by US tariffs, which are costing the Austrian steelmaker a high double-digit million euro sum. The Kindberg special-tube plant has already cut production in response. Nevertheless, management is guiding for an operating result of €1.60 billion to €1.85 billion this year, powered by lucrative aerospace orders. Airbus alone has placed contracts worth billions.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Voestalpine?
The balance sheet provides ample room to manoeuvre. Net financial debt fell 23.4% to €1.3 billion, equity stands at €7.8 billion, and the gearing ratio of 16.2% is the lowest in two decades. That financial firepower underpins the Greentec Steel decarbonisation programme. Two electric-arc furnaces are scheduled to start up in Linz and Donawitz in the first half of 2027, with core components arriving in autumn 2026. By 2029, the company expects to cut CO₂ emissions by up to 30% from 2019 levels.
The longer-term outlook remains clouded. The OECD warns that Chinese producers exported 131 million tonnes of steel last year – more than the entire EU’s output. Global excess capacity could balloon to 745 million tonnes by 2028, while demand adds only 34 million tonnes. EU safeguards can limit external price pressure but cannot fully neutralise the structural glut.
Technically, the stock closed on Friday at €41.70, roughly 7% below its 50-day moving average and also under the 100-day line. The relative strength index at 36.2 is nearing oversold territory, with the 200-day average at €39.75 providing the next support. The first-quarter report for 2026/27 is due on 5 August, when investors will see whether the new framework – and the dividend lift – are starting to translate into sustained earnings momentum.
Ad
Voestalpine Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Voestalpine Analysis from June 28 delivers the answer:
The latest Voestalpine figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Voestalpine investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from June 28.
Voestalpine: Buy or sell? Read more here...
