The two TUI Cruises vessels that had been trapped by the escalating Iran conflict have finally slipped through the Strait of Hormuz, but the relief is largely symbolic. The real story for the travel giant lies in the wreckage of its summer season — and a share price that has been cut by nearly a third.
Mein Schiff 4 and Mein Schiff 5 were stranded since late February, with the former held up in Abu Dhabi and the latter in Doha, after Iran effectively sealed the waterway. On Saturday, the ships managed to transit the strait in a tightly coordinated convoy alongside other cruise liners, even as Tehran had officially reimposed the blockade. According to agency reports, the crew of Mein Schiff 4 faced threats from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, with unconfirmed accounts of shots being fired near the vessel. TUI Cruises confirmed both ships are now heading to Cape Town for operational preparation and are expected to resume guest sailings from mid-May — Mein Schiff 5 from Heraklion on May 15 and Mein Schiff 4 from Triest on May 17.
Yet the return of the ships does little to steady the broader picture. Late last month, TUI slashed its full-year EBIT guidance to a range of €1.1 billion to €1.4 billion, abandoning its earlier forecast of growth on the prior year’s €1.413 billion. The company also suspended its revenue outlook entirely, citing the geopolitical fog. The Iran disruption alone cost around €40 million in March for repatriation efforts and operational downtime.
The damage is already visible in the booking data. Summer reservations are running 7% below last year’s level, with customers delaying decisions and shifting demand from the eastern Mediterranean toward the western basin. TUI’s shares reflect the gloom: at €6.34, the stock is trading roughly 29% below its start-of-year level and just above its 52-week trough. A second article, citing a slightly lower price of €6.29, puts the year-to-date decline at nearly 30% and notes the stock is hovering just above a 52-week low of €6.15.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying TUI?
Analysts have responded by trimming price targets, though most have kept their buy ratings intact. JPMorgan cut its target to €12.50 while maintaining “Overweight,” and Deutsche Bank lowered its to €10.50 with a similar positive stance. The average analyst target now stands at €9.83, according to one report, or €10.18 per another — a gap of roughly 60% above the current price that either signals deep value or reflects mounting skepticism about consensus views.
TUI does have some buffers in place. Around 83% of its kerosene requirements for the summer are hedged, and more than 80% of energy costs in the cruise division are locked in for the full year. But the bigger test comes on May 13, when the company releases its half-year results. That report will provide the first hard numbers on summer booking momentum — and reveal whether the gap to last year is narrowing or widening. Roadshows in Benelux, London and Frankfurt are scheduled for the second half of May.
Meanwhile, TUI is trying to shore up its distribution network. At its annual partner conference in Albania on April 29, the group unveiled plans for a new interface for its “Iris Plus” booking system, due by the end of 2026. The update aims to simplify package bookings, a pain point that travel agents had flagged. Despite the digital push, brick-and-mortar and mobile advisors still generate more than half of total revenue, with average transaction values well above those of pure online bookings. The company’s broader ambition is to evolve into a global, curated marketplace for travel experiences, blending its own airline capacity with third-party products. One persistent headache: integrating promotional coupon codes into commission structures, which agents have resisted. Management says it is working on technical fixes.
For summer 2026, early signals from TUI’s Policy Lounge on April 27 pointed to strength in river cruises, where the company plans to expand capacity. But for now, the immediate horizon is dominated by the May 13 numbers — and whether the market sees the current share price as a buying opportunity or a warning. Chart analysts have spotted a “piercing pattern” on the stock, a potential reversal signal, but the weight of the profit warning and the geopolitical drag may take more than a technical pattern to shift.
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