The stranded cruise ships are finally moving again, but TUI’s relief is proving short-lived. After more than 50 days trapped in Persian Gulf ports, vessels including the Mein Schiff 4 slipped through a narrow window opened by Iran mid-April, transiting the Strait of Hormuz in a tense convoy. The operational nightmare has been averted, yet the market’s response has been decidedly muted — and for good reason.
The travel giant has slashed its full-year guidance, with the Iran crisis alone costing the group roughly €40 million in March. For the second fiscal quarter, TUI now expects adjusted EBIT to land between €5 million and €25 million, a dramatic swing from the hefty loss booked in the same period last year. The full extent of the damage will become clearer in May, when the company publishes its complete half-year results and reveals how deeply cancellations have cut into ongoing operations.
Analysts Split on Outlook
Barclays analyst Andrew Lobbenberg has trimmed his price target on TUI shares from €10.50 to €9.00, while maintaining an “Overweight” rating. The revision reflects lower EBIT estimates for the current fiscal year 2026, though projections for 2027 and 2028 were left largely untouched. The new target still implies roughly 40 percent upside from the stock’s current level of €6.44.
Across the street, Bernstein’s Richard J. Clarke takes a more cautious stance. He points to a broader demand weakness as the real culprit, arguing that higher fuel costs are not the primary driver — TUI has hedged the vast majority of its kerosene and marine diesel for the summer season. Clarke rates the shares “Market-Perform” with a €9.20 price target.
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Fleet on the Move, Risks Remain
The rescued ships are now steaming toward Cape Town before returning to their regular schedules. By mid-May, they are expected to resume Mediterranean cruises, and two previously cancelled voyages have been reinstated. TUI had already airlifted roughly 10,000 stranded passengers out of the region.
But the Persian Gulf remains a powder keg. While TUI’s fleet has escaped, vessels from rival operator Hapag-Lloyd are still stuck in the area, underscoring how fragile the situation remains. The geopolitical uncertainty continues to weigh on the stock, which has shed roughly a quarter of its value since the start of the year, now trading at €6.53.
Technicals Flash Deeply Oversold
The selling has been relentless enough to push the relative strength index to 22, a level that seasoned traders typically interpret as deeply oversold. The 52-week high of €9.41, touched back in January, now looks like a distant memory. Whether the stock can stage a recovery depends heavily on how quickly tensions in the Middle East ease — and whether TUI’s summer bookings can withstand the lingering uncertainty.
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