After a brief rally that fizzled near the €6.60 level, TUI shares are once again testing support around €6.33 — dangerously close to the 52-week trough of €6.15. Year to date, the stock has shed roughly a third of its value, a drop that stands in stark contrast to the operational momentum building beneath the surface.
The company just posted its 14th consecutive quarter of higher adjusted operating profit. Group EBIT improved by about €40 million year on year, and management pegged the overall earnings uplift at roughly €70 million on a consolidated basis during the earnings call. That made the first half of the financial year the strongest in TUI’s history on an operating level.
External shocks are still taking their toll. The Middle East conflict weighed on the quarterly result by more than €40 million, while a hurricane in Jamaica added costs of around €20 million. Route disruptions, capacity adjustments and logistical hiccups hit a travel operator directly. But the cruise division, described by management as “exceptionally strong”, has absorbed those costs and kept the bottom line moving higher.
A key operational drag is now easing. Mein Schiff 4 and Mein Schiff 5 have returned to regular service after spending nearly three months idle because of the Red Sea security situation. Since mid-May, both vessels have been sailing in the Aegean and Adriatic, with itineraries running through mid-October. That brings back predictable revenue and reduces pressure on load factors. TUI Cruises also has the christening of Mein Schiff Flow scheduled for June in Trieste, adding premium capacity.
On the cost side, the group is working a second lever. Artificial intelligence is already optimising logistics in destination areas — the AI-driven bus loading factor has risen by 5 percent. Direct distribution is also gaining traction: the TUI app now accounts for about a quarter of direct bookings, a channel that improves customer retention and cuts distribution costs.
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Financially, TUI remains cautious. Interest expense for the 2026 financial year is expected to land at the lower end of the original range, around €325 million. That leaves some headroom even as fuel costs and geopolitical risks continue to act as brakes. Deleveraging is the top priority for management, who want to keep net debt below 0.5 times operating profit.
Meanwhile, the expansion into Asia is gathering pace. On 1 June 2026, the new “TUI Blue Yangtze” is due to open in Shanghai, a five-star property that marks an important strategic push into China. CEO Sebastian Ebel is looking to reduce reliance on European markets. TUI already operates 25 hotels in China and Southeast Asia, with dozens more projects in the pipeline, including entries into Japan and Vietnam. Globally, the development pipeline totals over 70 new properties.
The February dividend of €0.10 per share was modest, with most cash directed toward balance sheet repair and new cruise vessels. Shareholders are feeling the pinch: the stock’s year-to-date decline of more than 26% has erased the gains from that payout and more.
Chartists are watching the support zone between €5.80 and €6.10 closely. A break below that range would open the door to further losses. On the upside, the €7.00 mark remains a stiff resistance that has capped any meaningful recovery. The Shanghai hotel opening in early June will provide fresh operational evidence, but the share price must first defend its current level. A violation of the year’s low would severely damage the technical picture.
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