Operational performance at TUI AG is delivering, yet its stock continues to struggle. The challenge lies less in the recent quarterly figures and more in the forward-looking indicators: softer advance bookings are colliding with fresh economic uncertainty stemming from a US-EU tariff dispute. The question for investors is whether a record quarter can sufficiently offset these mounting risks.
Macroeconomic Tensions Cloud the Travel Outlook
Adding a layer of nervousness to the market is the evolving political landscape. The United States has implemented new, globally applicable tariffs of 10%, with an additional 15% in duties announced. Concurrently, the European Union’s decision to freeze a tariff agreement has created a stalemate.
This environment is unfavorable for the travel sector. An escalating trade conflict has the potential to dampen consumer sentiment broadly, which could indirectly impact the appetite for discretionary spending on holidays. For TUI, this macroeconomic headwind compounds an already observed slight softening in booking momentum.
Record Q1 Earnings Mask Booking Softness
For its first fiscal quarter of 2025/26, TUI reported an adjusted record EBIT of €77.1 million. This represents the highest first-quarter level since the merger with TUI Travel PLC in 2014. The cruise segment performed particularly well, with segment EBIT—including the equity result from TUI Cruises—jumping 70.8% to €82.3 million. Capacity increased by 16%, with occupancy running close to 100%.
However, financial markets are forward-looking, and the picture ahead appears less vibrant. The company reported that booked revenue for winter 2025/26 is 1% below the prior-year period, while summer 2026 bookings are 2% lower. This precise dip is muting the positive impact of the record quarterly earnings.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying TUI?
Stock Performance and Contrasting Positive Signals
Market caution is reflected in the share price chart. Currently trading at €8.10, the stock remains below its 50-day moving average of €8.81. It shows a decline of 8.39% over the past 30 days, despite hovering just €0.15 above its 200-day moving average of €8.09. A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 45 indicates a market that is neither overbought nor in extreme weakness.
Several factors on the positive side signal underlying stability. At the Annual General Meeting on February 10, TUI confirmed its return to dividend payments. A starter dividend of €0.10 per share is planned for fiscal 2025, with a payout ratio of 10% to 20% of adjusted earnings per share targeted from 2026 onward.
Furthermore, the balance sheet has strengthened. The full-year operating result for 2025 reached €1.46 billion, while net debt was reduced from €1.6 billion to €1.3 billion. Rating agency Fitch affirmed its ‘BB’ rating with a stable outlook. Moody’s confirmed its ‘Ba3’ rating and upgraded its outlook to ‘positive’. Following the share price decline, insider purchases were also recorded, including transactions by CEO Sebastian Ebel and CFO Mathias Kiep.
Regarding bookings, the company cited a trend toward last-minute reservations, according to Reuters. It also pointed to dampening effects from poor weather in Germany and the UK, which reduced foot traffic in travel agencies. TUI frames this as part of its strategic reduction of its own risk capacity and views the development as being in line with its plans.
The next significant data point arrives on 13 May 2026 with the half-year report. This release will clarify whether TUI can recover the slight booking weakness for the summer season and demonstrate the resilience of its annual guidance in an environment made more uncertain by the ongoing tariff conflict.
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