The German defence group’s push into environmental technology has done little to halt a sell-off that has now eaten into its stock for a second straight session. Investors remain unimpressed by a strategy that ties future growth to an unquantified climate venture, even as the company dangles a green carrot in front of Ottawa’s multibillion-dollar submarine procurement.
Shares in TKMS closed at €71.00 on Friday, down 4.57% on the day, extending the prior session’s 4.44% slide that had taken the stock to €71.10. Over the past seven days, the cumulative decline has reached roughly 6%. The stock now sits more than 30% below its 2025 peak of €102.90, and the technical picture continues to darken: the Relative Strength Index has fallen to 37.5, signalling persistent weakness. Analysts point to the €81 level — also the 50-day moving average — as the first major resistance that would need to be reclaimed to arrest the downtrend.
The trigger for this week’s selling pressure was the announcement of two non-binding memoranda of understanding on Thursday. TKMS has teamed up with Heirloom Carbon Technologies and thyssenkrupp Calvion to build a direct air capture hub in Alberta. The facility is designed to filter CO₂ from the atmosphere and position Canada as a global exporter of carbon removal credits. But the company has provided neither a capital expenditure figure nor a projected contract value for the project, leaving analysts to label the initiative as a preliminary gesture rather than a concrete revenue driver.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying TKMS?
The carbon capture plan is, however, a deliberate component of TKMS’s bid for the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project, which seeks up to 12 new boats. The Canadian government is demanding substantial local industrial benefits from all bidders, and the green hub is intended to serve as proof of TKMS’s commitment to in-country value creation. It pits the German group against South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean in what is shaping up to be a high-stakes competition. A final decision on the preferred bidder is not expected before late summer at the earliest, and the prolonged uncertainty is weighing on the stock.
Operationally, the underlying business remains robust. In the first half of the fiscal year, TKMS generated revenues of nearly €1.17 billion, while adjusted operating profit climbed to €60 million. The order backlog stands at a hefty €20.6 billion, providing multi-year visibility. Yet the market continues to look past these fundamental strengths, fixating instead on the lack of near-term catalysts for new large-scale contracts.
Management will have opportunities to reset the narrative later this month, with appearances at industry conferences hosted by Deutsche Bank and Jefferies in late June. The next quarterly earnings report is scheduled for August 12, 2026. Until either the Canadian submarine decision or a concrete deal in the carbon removal space materialises, the stock appears trapped in a holding pattern, with technical and sentiment indicators both pointing to further downside risk.
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