Thyssenkrupp shares are trading at EUR 8.84, a level roughly ten percent below their 200-day moving average. This price reflects a stark corporate dichotomy: burgeoning naval ambitions are clashing with a stalled and costly retreat from its foundational steel business. The stock has gained over ten percent in the past month, yet remains down nearly nine percent since the start of the year.
The group’s marine systems unit, TKMS, is aggressively pursuing contracts worldwide. In Canada, it is competing with South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean for a historic order to supply twelve new submarines, a deal valued at up to EUR 37 billion. The Canadian defence ministry extended its deadline, giving finalists until 29 April 2026 to refine their proposals. To meet local content requirements, TKMS has signed partnership deals with Canadian firms E3 Lithium and Finkl Steel.
European expansion is also underway. TKMS signed a letter of intent with Spanish state-owned shipbuilder Navantia in mid-April to cooperate on surface ships and submarines, aiming to execute projects faster and more cheaply. Back in Germany, the unit is the sole remaining bidder for the F127 air defence frigate programme, an estimated EUR 26 billion project awaiting budgetary committee approval on 24 June.
Simultaneously, the company is navigating a critical quiet period ahead of its half-year report on 12 May, refraining from operational commentary until then. This report is expected to clarify the status of several strategic initiatives, including progress at Materials Services and the HKM transaction.
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The most pressing issue, however, is the faltering sale of its steel division to Jindal Steel International. Negotiations have stalled after six months of due diligence, with insiders now viewing a deal as unlikely. Disputes over future investments and energy costs are compounded by a massive EUR 2.4 billion pension liability, creating a significant roadblock.
While the steel unit drags on performance—the board has already forecast a net loss of up to EUR 800 million for the 2026 fiscal year—potential financial relief could come from another source. Thyssenkrupp retains a 16.2 percent stake in TK Elevator. The main owners, Cinven and Advent, are targeting a public listing for the elevator maker in the second half of 2026, which could value Thyssenkrupp’s holding at around EUR 4 billion based on a total valuation of up to EUR 25 billion. Market volatility, however, has made the owners more open to a direct sale. Competitor Kone is reportedly a potential buyer, though such a move would face considerable antitrust hurdles.
The steel business could receive external support from new EU trade measures. Member states and the European Parliament agreed in mid-April to tighten steel import restrictions, reducing the annual duty-free quota to 18.3 million tonnes—a 47 percent cut. Volumes exceeding this limit will face a 50 percent tariff, up from 25 percent, providing relief for the domestic industry from July onward.
The coming weeks are pivotal. The 12 May report will reveal how severely the steel division is eroding the naval unit’s profits. Shortly after, the EU will finalise its new steel tariffs. Together, these events will define the near-term trajectory for Thyssenkrupp’s equity, forcing the market to weigh its promising defence prospects against the entrenched challenges in its industrial past.
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