Thyssenkrupp shares climbed 6.2% on Friday, but the trigger lay outside the conglomerate’s own press releases. Reuters traced the sector-wide lift to UBS’s re-rating of Salzgitter, a move that rippled across European steel equities rather than reflecting any fresh Thyssenkrupp announcement.
That distinction matters for anyone reading the tape. Hopes for firmer European steel prices can buoy Thyssenkrupp alongside its peers, yet the actual upgrade belonged to Salzgitter. What sits underneath Thyssenkrupp’s own valuation is a separate mix: analyst coverage of the company itself and the financial ambitions of its steel division.
UBS Fires the Starting Gun
On Friday, UBS lifted Salzgitter from “Neutral” to “Buy,” with analyst Andrew Jones pointing to stronger-than-expected gains from rising EU steel prices. The bank raised its price target on the stock from EUR 56 to EUR 71.
Salzgitter, not Thyssenkrupp, was UBS’s clear sector favorite. At the same time, ArcelorMittal picked up a fresh buy recommendation — which explains why the impulse spread across the industry rather than concentrating on a single name.
Thyssenkrupp had its own analyst action to digest. According to media reports, Jefferies raised its price target to EUR 16.50 on Wednesday while keeping its “Buy” rating. Analyst Tommaso Castello tied the recovery potential to the steel business’s rebound and the planned spin-off of TK Accelis, meaning the group’s structural overhaul — not just steel-market conditions — underpins the bullish case.
A separate note from AlphaValue/Baader Europe, per media reports, leaned on higher earnings expectations for Thyssenkrupp Steel, citing capacity cuts, workforce reductions, and an improving European steel market. These analyst moves predate Friday’s rally, so no direct link to the day’s move can be confirmed. What they do reveal is the set of drivers behind the more optimistic valuations.
A Frigate Order Lands at TKMS
The budget committee of the Bundestag approved the procurement of four additional MEKO A-200 DEU frigates, according to the subsidiary TKMS, with Reuters also reporting the green light for the German Navy.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Thyssenkrupp?
Ownership structure is the key to reading this correctly. The announcement came from TKMS and concerns its own business — it should not be mistaken for a direct order to the Thyssenkrupp parent. Unlike the analyst projections for steel, this is a parliamentary procurement decision, which makes it more concrete but says nothing yet about the earnings contribution it will deliver to Thyssenkrupp.
Accelis Listing Still a Target, Not a Fact
Reuters reported on October 5 that Thyssenkrupp was aiming for a separate listing of TK Accelis on October 28, with a planned spin-off of 49%. The company did not confirm that specific date, stating only that the listing should take place by the end of 2026.
The gap between an intended date and a confirmed one remains significant. The transaction does feature in Jefferies’ positive thesis, but the day cited by Reuters is not a binding corporate announcement. Thyssenkrupp has confirmed a roadshow in Paris on October 14, 2026, and the publication of its 2025/2026 annual report on December 8, 2026.
Steel Targets Set the Bar
At its capital markets day on September 28, Thyssenkrupp Steel laid out medium-term ambitions of at least EUR 1.2 billion in adjusted EBITDA and an adjusted EBITDA margin of at least 11%. A positive free cash flow is a further goal, and the carve-out of Steel Europe remains a strategic objective. These are targets for where the division wants to go — not results already booked.
Friday’s price action and those medium-term ambitions sit on different planes. Rising steel-price expectations can support market sentiment; whether Thyssenkrupp Steel actually hits its earnings and cash-flow goals is a separate economic question. Until the annual report lands in December, the recent advance reads best as a positive reaction to the sector backdrop, with Jefferies’ own buy call rounding out the picture and the steel unit’s targets remaining the operational yardstick.
Ad
Thyssenkrupp Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Thyssenkrupp Analysis from October 11 delivers the answer:
The latest Thyssenkrupp figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Thyssenkrupp investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from October 11.
Thyssenkrupp: Buy or sell? Read more here...
