When Nebius officially joins the Nasdaq-100 on June 22, it will trigger a wave of forced buying from more than 200 index-tracking products managing over $800 billion in assets. The stock has already priced in much of that enthusiasm, closing Friday at €200.60 — up 4.49% on the day and an eye-popping 162% since the start of the year. Yet behind the rally lurks a striking disconnect: while passive money floods in, the company’s own insiders have been heading for the exit. Over the past twelve months, not a single insider has bought shares. Twelve have sold.
The mechanics of the index rebalancing are relentless. Every ETF and mutual fund that mirrors the Nasdaq-100 must build a position in Nebius before the effective date. That structural demand creates a short-term tailwind, but the market has already front-loaded some of the effect. CTO Danila Shtan took advantage of the elevated price on June 4, selling 15,678 shares through a pre-arranged 10b5-1 plan. Chief Revenue Officer Marc Boroditsky followed on June 2, unloading 10,776 shares at an average of $276.20. No insider has stepped in to buy.
Wall Street is equally divided on what the stock is really worth. Goldman Sachs lifted its price target to $267 and maintains a “Buy” rating. Citigroup is even more bullish at $287, and Bank of America raised its target to $280. On the other side, Morgan Stanley sees fair value at just $144 with a “Hold” recommendation. BNP Paribas initiated coverage on June 2 with a “Neutral” and a $255 target, arguing that the recent surge has already baked in much of the upside. Revenue growth is strong, BNP conceded, but expectations have become very optimistic.
The fundamental picture does provide plenty of fuel for the bulls. First-quarter 2026 revenue hit $399 million, a nearly seven-fold jump from a year earlier, with AI cloud services now accounting for roughly 98% of that total. Nvidia has invested $2 billion strategically, securing Nebius early access to next-generation GPU platforms including the Vera Rubin architecture, which the company plans to offer through its cloud in the second half of 2026. Capacity commitments from Meta and Microsoft, a first gigawatt-scale project in the US, partnerships with Bloom Energy, and the acquisition of startup Eigen underscore the expansion drive. Management is guiding for up to $3.4 billion in full-year revenue and an operating margin of 40%.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nebius?
Beyond the index inclusion, the arrival of a heavyweight investor has added credibility. Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former OpenAI researcher who now runs the $13.7 billion “Situational Awareness” fund, recently disclosed a 5.6% stake in Nebius. His involvement is a long-term bet on the physical infrastructure layer of artificial intelligence, not a short-term punt. In the UK, Nebius is pouring roughly £1.7 billion into three new sites dedicated to Nvidia-powered infrastructure, deepening its footprint in what it calls the “neocloud” space — a middle ground between hyperscalers and pure hardware providers.
Technically, the stock has room to run before overheating. At €242.95, the 52-week high is about 17% above current levels. The relative strength index stands at 56, well short of the 70 threshold that typically signals overbought conditions. The 200-day moving average sits some 90% below the current price, a reflection of how fast the rally has been. But the annualized volatility of 110% is a stark reminder that swings can be brutal.
The real test will come after June 22, when the mechanical buying subsides. At that point, the operating performance must justify a valuation that has already absorbed months of bullish sentiment. Whether the stock can hold above its current level — or even challenge the record high — depends on whether the pipeline of long-term contracts, the Nvidia relationship, and those promised 40% margins can deliver in the second half of the year.
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