The disconnect between professional optimism and retail caution at ITM Power has rarely been starker. While Wall Street analysts have been scrambling to raise their price targets, private investors have been quietly heading for the exits — a divergence that underscores just how much is riding on a single regulatory decision expected within weeks.
The hydrogen electrolyser specialist has seen its shares quintuple over the past twelve months, pushing its market capitalisation past the £1 billion mark. That rally has been fuelled by a narrative of technological leapfrogging and strategic pivots, but the next chapter hinges on a June verdict from the UK’s Subsidy Control regime.
The Sheffield Bet
At the heart of the story is the Chronos platform — a next-generation electrolyser capable of delivering two megawatts per unit, triple the output of current systems. The technology promises to slash costs by nearly half and cut space requirements by 50%. To bring it to scale, ITM Power needs a new manufacturing facility in Sheffield, and that requires public money.
The company has already secured a £40 million strategic investment from Great British Energy, with an additional £46.5 million grant earmarked for the Chronos production line. But both tranches are contingent on a green light from the UK’s subsidy control authority, which is expected to publish its findings on May 26. Management has said it will make a final investment decision on the factory immediately after the ruling in June.
A positive outcome would unlock the capital needed for what the company calls a “capacity leap.” A rejection, by contrast, would put the brakes on the entire growth story.
The Bull Case
The professional analyst community has been increasingly vocal in its support. Jefferies recently lifted its price target from 115 pence to 200 pence, maintaining a “Buy” rating and citing improved earnings prospects and a more favourable political backdrop. Morgan Stanley has upgraded the stock to “Overweight” with a 170 pence target, forecasting that ITM Power will reach operating breakeven in fiscal 2028.
The bulls point to a balance sheet that is debt-free and flush with nearly £198 million in cash. Jefferies estimates that war chest is sufficient to fund operations until at least 2028 without needing to tap equity markets. The order book stands at £152 million, with 71% of those contracts deemed profitable — a marked improvement from the loss-making legacy projects that plagued the company in earlier years.
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Operationally, the trajectory is improving. First-half revenue for fiscal 2026 hit a record £18 million, and management has lifted its full-year guidance to above £40 million. Gross losses have narrowed meaningfully.
The Bear Case — and the Retail Exodus
Yet the numbers also reveal why retail investors have been taking profits. On the AJ Bell platform, ITM Power recently accounted for roughly one in every fifty sell orders. On a single trading day, 13.2 million shares changed hands — a 168% surge above the average daily volume.
The caution is not without foundation. Despite the revenue growth, the company’s pre-tax loss widened to over £45 million in the most recent half. UBS has kept its price target at a sober 60 pence with a “Neutral” rating, explicitly warning that the current valuation has run far ahead of the fundamentals. Berenberg, while recommending a “Buy,” has trimmed its target to 110 pence.
Jefferies itself acknowledges the downside risk: in a negative scenario, it sees the shares falling 52% from current levels.
Beyond Hydrogen: The Rheinmetall Connection
Away from the civil hydrogen economy, ITM Power is also carving out a position in defence. A strategic partnership with Rheinmetall aims to build a Europe-wide network for producing synthetic fuels for NATO forces. The plan envisions hundreds of decentralised plants, each capable of delivering up to 50 megawatts of electrolysis capacity.
That diversification adds another layer to the story, but it does not change the immediate calculus. The next few weeks will determine whether ITM Power can secure the public funding needed to turn its technological promise into industrial reality — and whether the billion-pound valuation can be justified by something more than hope.
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