Tesla faces investors tonight with a quarterly report card defined by conflicting signals. While a record pile of unsold vehicles threatens profitability, the company is simultaneously pushing forward on autonomous driving and securing new sales channels. The electric vehicle maker’s first-quarter results, due after the U.S. market close, will reveal how effectively it can manage these parallel narratives.
The most pressing issue is an unprecedented inventory build-up. Tesla produced approximately 408,000 vehicles in Q1 but delivered only about 358,000, leaving a surplus of over 50,000 units. This delta marks the largest stockpile in the company’s history. Analysts warn that clearing this backlog in the second quarter will likely require price cuts, potentially costing the company between $400 and $600 million in margin.
Beyond the automotive segment, Tesla’s energy storage business has also shown recent weakness. For the quarter, market observers anticipate earnings per share around $0.35 on revenue of roughly $22 billion. However, consensus is unusually divided. Tesla’s own compilation of 20 sell-side analysts points to non-GAAP EPS of $0.33 on $21.4 billion in revenue, while external data providers like Bloomberg forecast a higher range of $0.37 to $0.40 per share and $22 to $23 billion in sales.
Amidst these challenges, Tesla is forging new paths for growth. The company recently signed a four-year master agreement with Sourcewell, a purchasing consortium serving thousands of U.S. government agencies and universities. This deal streamlines the public sector’s ability to buy Tesla’s core vehicle models through 2029.
The autonomous driving division is also expanding its footprint. Since mid-April, Tesla’s robotaxi service has been operating in Dallas and Houston, with some vehicles in designated neighborhoods driving completely without a safety driver. The service charges a base fare of just over three dollars plus one dollar per mile, putting it in direct competition with Waymo, which launched commercial rides in both Texas metros in February. Tesla plans to expand the service to Las Vegas, Miami, Orlando, Phoenix, and Tampa by mid-2026, though UBS analyst Joseph Spak cautions the rollout will be deliberately slow to prioritize safety standards.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Tesla?
Investor focus will also be on the automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits, which recovered to 17.9% in Q4 2025 from 15.4% the prior quarter. Whether this stabilization continued is a key question. A figure above 17% would signal core business health, while a drop below 15% would suggest the EV segment is eroding faster than new ventures can compensate.
Regulatory headwinds are emerging elsewhere. In South Texas, Tesla’s new lithium refinery near Corpus Christi received an official warning this week. Independent tests reportedly found traces of toxic chromium and arsenic in wastewater, leading authorities to temporarily ban the facility from discharging water into the local sewer system.
On the software front, a new update integrates the “Grok” voice AI into vehicles, and Tesla’s developer team has overhauled the Autopilot app for the latest hardware generation. In Europe, the supervised version of Full Self-Driving is already available in the Netherlands, with more markets to follow, though investors await a concrete timeline for the unsupervised version’s rollout.
Looming over all near-term financials is the specter of “Terafab,” a planned AI data center with terawatt-scale capacity. This project, not included in Tesla’s existing capex guidance of over $20 billion for 2026, could cost tens of billions of dollars according to reports from Reuters and Bloomberg, a sum that dwarfs the company’s annual automotive revenue.
The options market is pricing in a share price move of around 5 percent following the report. Tesla’s stock currently trades at 334 EUR, near its 50-day moving average and roughly 20 percent below its December high. How the market weighs the combination of weak deliveries, margin pressure, and costly long-term bets will become clear when CEO Elon Musk faces analyst questions after the 10 PM CET earnings release.
Ad
Tesla Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Tesla Analysis from April 22 delivers the answer:
The latest Tesla figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Tesla investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from April 22.
Tesla: Buy or sell? Read more here...
