Tesla shares are navigating a turbulent week, caught between a significant manufacturing pivot and the looming pressure of quarterly earnings. The stock, trading around €307, finds itself roughly 26% below its December 2025 peak and down nearly 18% year-to-date. This backdrop sets the stage for a critical report on April 22nd, where the company must address a growing inventory of unsold vehicles alongside its ambitious strategic shifts.
The most immediate operational change is a major retooling at Tesla’s Fremont, California plant. The company will cease production of the Model S and Model X there in the second quarter of 2026. The freed-up production lines are being repurposed for the assembly of the Optimus humanoid robot, signaling a concrete step toward scaling this new product category.
To achieve mass production for Optimus, Tesla is turning to its Shanghai Gigafactory, described by Vice President Wang Hao as a “golden key.” While the facility built 851,000 electric vehicles in 2025—over half of Tesla’s global deliveries—it is now being tasked with securing the robot’s supply chain. Series production of the third-generation Optimus is slated to begin before the end of 2026, with an internal target of one million units annually. Current output, however, lags far behind; Tesla delivered fewer than 500 intelligent robots in 2025, a stark contrast to earlier management plans for 5,000 units.
This aggressive robotics push comes as Wall Street reassesses the stock. UBS upgraded Tesla from “Sell” to “Neutral” on April 14, citing a more balanced risk-reward profile after recent share price declines. The firm maintained its $352 price target but outlined persistent headwinds, including weaker EV demand, an expected energy bottleneck in Q1 2026, rising costs, and slow progress on the robotaxi network. For Optimus specifically, UBS forecasts only 5,000 units in 2027 and 30,000 by 2030, warning of potential supply chain issues involving Chinese components.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Tesla?
Analyst opinions remain deeply divided. While Morgan Stanley holds a $410 target and Wedbush a bullish $600, Wells Fargo sits at the bearish end with $125. UBS projects 2026 deliveries of around 1.6 million vehicles, barely above the prior year, and expects annual growth of just 7% to approximately 2 million units by 2030—well below the Wall Street consensus of 3 million.
On the software front, Tesla is rolling out its Spring 2026 update, headlined by the “Hey Grok” voice command for hands-free activation of its AI assistant. The update also includes a revamped self-driving app for newer AI4 hardware vehicles. Separately, the Dutch authority RDW has approved the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system in Europe, paving the way for a broader rollout. A key caveat is that many new software features are exclusive to newer vehicle hardware, leaving older models behind.
All these developments converge ahead of the Q1 earnings report. The figures are expected to be challenging. Tesla missed delivery forecasts last quarter with 358,023 vehicles, resulting in an inventory swell of over 50,000 unsold cars. Investors will scrutinize the automotive gross margin and any updates on supply chain issues, new battery suppliers, and the 4680 cell. Positive signals may come from the expansion of FSD in China and Europe. Additionally, production of the sub-$30,000, steering-wheel-less Cybercab is set to begin later this month.
The stock’s technical picture reflects the uncertainty, with its price currently trading below both the 50- and 200-day moving averages, having formed a so-called “death cross” in April. Today’s slight gain of 1.82% to €307.20 offers little respite from the broader downward trend. The upcoming earnings will test whether Tesla’s narrative of a robotics and software future can outweigh the present reality of a softening auto market.
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