Investors in Deutsche Telekom are counting down to August 6, when the Bonn-based telecoms giant will publish its second-quarter and first-half results for 2026. The date has been circled on calendars for weeks, but the recent performance of its US subsidiary, T-Mobile US, has already given the market plenty to digest ahead of the group-level numbers.
T-Mobile US reported quarterly earnings last Friday that comfortably beat analyst expectations. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.99, well above the consensus estimate of $2.58 and up from $2.84 in the same period last year. Revenue climbed 7.9 percent year-on-year to $22.8 billion, though this fell fractionally short of market forecasts. The US arm added 277,000 net new postpaid phone subscribers during the quarter — a 13 percent decline from a year earlier, but still a sign that its core, high-margin business remains on a solid footing.
The real headline-grabber came on Wednesday, when T-Mobile US raised its full-year guidance for adjusted free cashflow to a range of $18.4 billion to $18.8 billion, up from the previous forecast of $18.1 billion to $18.7 billion. Management pointed to strong operational momentum in the second quarter as the driver behind the upgrade. For Deutsche Telekom, which holds a majority stake in T-Mobile US and relies on it for a significant chunk of group earnings, the improved outlook is a clear positive signal — higher cashflow at the subsidiary ultimately flows back to the parent.
Buyback Programme Gathers Pace
Deutsche Telekom has been active on the capital markets front as well. Between July 20 and July 24, the company repurchased 1,353,640 of its own shares at a weighted average price of €26.73. Since the buyback programme kicked off on July 1, the total volume has reached approximately 5.03 million shares. The purchases provide a steady undercurrent of demand for the stock and signal management’s confidence in the company’s valuation.
The shares have responded positively to the T-Mobile news flow, though the rally has been measured rather than explosive. The stock currently trades at around €27.50, having gained 15.3 percent over the past 30 days. On a weekly basis, the advance stands at 5.3 percent, suggesting that the good news from the US is being gradually priced in. Wednesday saw a slight pullback of 0.4 percent to €27.43, but the broader trend remains upward.
Still, the stock sits roughly a fifth below its 52-week high of €34.35, reached in late February. The recent recovery has narrowed that gap, but the shares have some ground to make up before they can challenge those levels again.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Deutsche Telekom?
Analyst Views: Divergent Targets, Shared Conviction
The analyst community remains broadly bullish on Deutsche Telekom, even if individual price targets have been adjusted. DZ Bank reaffirmed its rating on July 28 with a fair value of €35.00, just days before the upcoming results. Deutsche Bank renewed its “Buy” recommendation on July 24 but trimmed its price target from €42.00 to €40.00. JPMorgan and Barclays, both of which issued notes around July 20, maintained targets in the €36.50 to €40.00 range, highlighting the group’s defensive characteristics.
In market commentary, Deutsche Telekom has been described as something of a safe haven within the DAX, supported by its partnership with OpenAI and a resilient revenue base. That defensive profile has stood the stock in good stead while the technology and semiconductor sectors have come under selling pressure. The range of analyst targets — from €35 to €40 — suggests that while there is disagreement on the precise upside, the underlying strength of the business is not in question.
Dividend Hike and Network Expansion
For longer-term investors, the dividend story remains relevant. At the annual general meeting in early April, shareholders approved a dividend of €1.00 per share for the 2025 financial year, up from €0.90 the previous year. The payout, which was made in April on a tax-free basis, underscores management’s commitment to returning growing cashflow to shareholders — a theme that is likely to resurface when the group reports its half-year numbers.
On the operational side, Deutsche Telekom continues to invest in its domestic network. A new mobile site went live in Überlingen on Lake Constance on Wednesday, expanding 4G and 5G coverage in the district to 94 percent of the area. The move is part of a broader push to improve connectivity in rural and suburban regions across Germany.
What to Watch on August 6
With T-Mobile US having already set a high bar, attention now turns to how those positive trends translate into the group-level figures. Investors will be watching for revenue and operating profit at the consolidated level, as well as any updates to the group’s own cashflow guidance. The performance of Deutsche Telekom’s core German business and its European subsidiaries will also be under scrutiny.
The buyback programme, the dividend trajectory, and the cashflow uplift from the US all point in a favourable direction. Whether the market sees the August 6 report as confirmation of that story — or as a moment to take profits after the recent run-up — will depend on the detail in the numbers. For now, the stage is set for a pivotal update from Bonn.
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