The software firm Strategy continues to execute a singular, aggressive playbook: using its equity to buy Bitcoin, regardless of market conditions. This unwavering commitment has solidified its dominance but also exposed it to severe volatility, resulting in a staggering $14.46 billion unrealized loss on its digital assets for the first quarter of 2026. As the company prepares to release full quarterly figures on April 30, investors are weighing the profound risks of this concentrated strategy against its long-term thesis.
Between April 1 and April 5, the company purchased an additional 4,871 Bitcoin for approximately $330 million. This acquisition was funded entirely by selling its own shares, a move that dilutes existing shareholders. Strategy’s total holdings now stand at 766,970 tokens. Its share of corporate Bitcoin holdings globally has swelled to 76%, according to data from CryptoQuant, highlighting a startling concentration. In the past 30 days, all other public companies combined bought just 1,000 Bitcoin, leaving Strategy as an isolated giant on the buy side.
This isolation is a key problem. The company’s substantial purchases are currently being neutralized by larger market forces. Massive capital outflows from other crypto products, including BlackRock’s IBIT fund, have seen the realized market value of Bitcoin drop by $29 billion since February. These overarching outflows are drowning out Strategy’s targeted demand, rendering its recent $330 million investment ineffective in moving the market.
Financing this relentless accumulation requires constant capital. In the first week of April alone, the sale of new STRC-series preferred shares and regular MSTR stock generated net proceeds of about $174 million. This equity-funded engine keeps the strategy alive but comes at a significant accounting cost. With Bitcoin’s price falling from over $110,000 in mid-2025 to occasionally below $70,000, the value of Strategy’s entire portfolio has dipped below its average purchase price of $75,644 per coin.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Strategy?
The financial strain is evident in the stock’s performance. The share price has plummeted roughly 59% year-over-year, currently trading around 109.70 EUR (112.90 EUR as of yesterday’s close). Since the start of the year, it’s down nearly 16%, and it trades more than 71% below its 52-week high.
Despite these stark numbers, several analysts maintain a bullish stance. Texas Capital Securities recently reiterated a buy rating with a $200 price target, citing the company’s leading role in digital treasury management. B. Riley also sees an attractive valuation, noting the shares now trade at just 1.2 times net asset value—a steep discount to the peak multiple of 3.4 in 2024. They point to Strategy’s clear strategic focus and a potentially more favorable regulatory environment as reasons for optimism.
A brief respite arrived on April 8 when a de-escalation between the US and Iran pushed Bitcoin to a three-week high near $73,000. This move closer to the company’s average cost basis offers a glimmer of hope, but sustained stability at this level is crucial to avoid further heavy write-downs in the second quarter. The upcoming earnings report will finalize the scale of the Q1 losses and the complex associated tax accounting, where deferred tax assets created on the losses were immediately offset by a valuation allowance due to future uncertainty. For Strategy, the coming weeks are a test of whether its monumental gamble can withstand the market’s indifference.
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