Investment research firm Bernstein has issued a substantial price target for Strategy, projecting the stock could reach $450. This forecast, implying a potential upside of 226% from Monday’s closing price, is anchored in the analyst’s conviction that the Bitcoin bear market has concluded.
A $450 Target Rooted in Bitcoin’s Cycle
Analyst Gautam Chhugani and his team at Bernstein maintain a core belief that “Bitcoin has found its floor and is now poised to move higher.” Their outlook for Strategy is directly tied to this crypto perspective. They reaffirm a year-end 2026 Bitcoin target of $150,000 and anticipate a cycle peak of $200,000 in 2027. Strategy’s aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin during the recent downturn forms the basis for connecting these macro forecasts to the company’s equity valuation.
Aggressive Accumulation Defines Strategy’s Position
A central pillar of Bernstein’s analysis is Strategy’s purchasing activity. Despite a 19% decline in Bitcoin’s price, the company acquired 89,599 BTC since the start of the year. This buying spree, the second-largest since its Bitcoin treasury strategy began in 2020, was funded by $7.3 billion raised through equity offerings. Strategy’s total holdings now stand at 762,099 BTC, representing approximately 3.6% of the total circulating supply. The net asset value of this treasury is reported at $53.5 billion.
The STRC Preferred Share Financing Model
Bernstein highlights Strategy’s use of perpetual preferred shares, known as STRC, as a critical financial engine. Introduced in July 2025, these instruments pay a monthly cash dividend of 11.5% and are positioned as a digital credit asset. Trading volume for STRC has surged 65% over the past three months, reaching a 30-day average of $220 million.
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The firm argues this structure allows Strategy to fund aggressive Bitcoin purchases without continuously diluting common shareholders. In their long-term model, STRC is projected to contribute 22% of cumulative capital inflows through 2033, with the remainder sourced from traditional market equity raises.
Diverging Views on the Street
Not all institutions share Bernstein’s optimistic stance. Standard Chartered offers a contrasting view, anticipating a further Bitcoin decline to $50,000. Consequently, the bank has lowered its 2026 Bitcoin forecast from $150,000 to $100,000, citing a weak economic environment and lackluster demand.
Bernstein itself outlines a bear-case scenario. In this view, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings would stagnate at 4.6% of supply, the market would enter a prolonged downturn after a 2027 peak, and the company might be forced to liquidate portions of its treasury to service convertible notes and preferred dividends.
Market Performance and Consensus
Strategy’s stock has gained roughly 11% over the past month. However, it remains down more than 57% on a six-month view. According to data aggregator TipRanks, the analyst consensus currently stands at “Strong Buy,” with an average price target of $284. Bernstein’s $450 target sits significantly above this prevailing market expectation.
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