HomeAnalysisStrategy Inc Faces Potential Index Removal and Stock Market Headwinds

Strategy Inc Faces Potential Index Removal and Stock Market Headwinds

The corporate landscape for Strategy Inc is growing increasingly contentious. The company, which holds the world’s largest Bitcoin treasury, is mounting a vigorous defense against plans that could see it ejected from major global stock indices. This move comes even as the firm continues its aggressive accumulation of the cryptocurrency, having recently purchased nearly $1 billion worth.

A Billion-Dollar Bet Amid Regulatory Scrutiny

Undeterred by the ongoing debate over its classification, Strategy Inc remains committed to its Bitcoin strategy. On December 8, the company disclosed it had acquired an additional 10,624 Bitcoin for approximately $962.7 million. This transaction, funded primarily through the issuance of new shares, represents its largest weekly purchase in six months. The acquisition brings Strategy Inc’s total holdings to 660,624 Bitcoin, meaning it now controls roughly 3.1% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist.

This aggressive accumulation is occurring against a backdrop of significant pressure on the company’s share price. Since the start of the year, the stock has declined by 45.96%, recently trading at 158.00 Euros. The share price now sits more than 44% below its 200-day moving average, underscoring a pronounced long-term downward trend.

The Threat of Index Exclusion

The core of the current conflict stems from a proposal by index provider MSCI. The plan involves excluding companies from its global indices if 50% or more of their assets are held in digital currencies. Strategy Inc has formally objected to this criterion. In a letter published on December 10, management, led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, labeled the proposed threshold as “arbitrary, discriminatory, and unworkable.”

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Strategy?

The firm argues that it is structured as an operational software company, not an investment fund. Exclusion from key MSCI indices carries substantial risk. Analysts at JPMorgan have warned that such a move would compel passive funds tracking these benchmarks to sell their holdings in Strategy Inc. This could trigger billions in capital outflows, placing further strain on an already beleaguered stock.

Strategic Shifts and Financial Safeguards

In response to the sustained share price weakness, the company’s leadership has implemented a new financial safeguard. A strategic reserve of $1.44 billion has been established to cover dividend payments and interest obligations for the next 21 months. Market observers interpret this move as an acknowledgment that the company cannot rely solely on issuing new shares to meet ongoing expenses during periods of poor equity performance.

A growing divergence is evident between the firm’s expanding Bitcoin reserves and its stock market valuation. Looking ahead, two critical factors will shape the immediate future: MSCI’s final decision on its index eligibility criteria and the price of Bitcoin at year-end, which will significantly influence fourth-quarter results. A clear assessment of the effectiveness of the company’s capital strategy will only emerge with the release of financial figures in early 2026.

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