SpaceX achieved a genuine first over the weekend: its Starship system lifted off from Texas carrying 20 operational Starlink V3 satellites rather than the ballast it had hauled on previous test flights. All 20 established radio and laser links after deployment, confirming that the world’s largest rocket can perform its primary commercial mission. Yet the stock, which listed on the Nasdaq in mid-June at $135, continues to drift lower. In German trading it closed at €100.74, leaving it just 3.28% above its 52-week low of €97.54 and nursing a 25% loss over the past 30 days.
The disconnect between operational progress and market performance is stark. The thirteenth Starship flight was the most consequential since the IPO, but the equity has been unable to shake a persistent sell-off that has pushed its relative strength index to 33.7 — firmly into oversold territory.
A Mixed Bag in the Gulf and the Indian Ocean
The 124-metre vehicle delivered a split result. The Super Heavy booster suffered a hard landing in the Gulf of Mexico after ten engines ignited for the braking burn, two shut down immediately, and only five were still firing at touchdown — insufficient for a soft splashdown. The Starship upper stage, by contrast, performed its most polished re-entry to date, withstanding temperatures above 1,400 degrees Celsius, executing a dynamic pitch manoeuvre, and settling intact in the Indian Ocean. SpaceX described it as the gentlest water landing of the entire programme. Recovery of heat-shield data was a primary objective for a mission that had been delayed multiple times by weather and tropical storm activity.
While Starship grabbed the headlines, the Falcon 9 workhorse kept its usual cadence. A Saturday launch from Vandenberg Space Force Base delivered 24 more Starlink satellites, with the first stage landing on the droneship “Of Course I Still Love You.” On Sunday, SpaceX supported the safe return of NASA astronaut Chris Williams and two Russian cosmonauts aboard Soyuz MS-28 after 241 days on the International Space Station — routine orbital operations that underscore the breadth of the company’s revenue streams.
HSBC Breaks Cover With a Cautious Call
The most significant analyst development since the IPO came on Friday when HSBC initiated coverage with a Hold rating and a $115 price target, well below the $135 IPO price. The stock initially fell as much as 6% in New York before closing almost exactly at the new target, $115.07. In Frankfurt it lost 2.6% to €101.18.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
HSBC built its valuation by breaking SpaceX into individual business units and then applying a double premium for Elon Musk’s innovation factor. Even in its most optimistic scenario — which assumes commercial Starship operations begin in 2027 — the bank sees only $293 per share. That compares with Morgan Stanley’s Overweight rating and $300 target, and a Wall Street consensus of roughly $237. The analysts expressed scepticism about some of the company’s more speculative bets, including orbital data centres, the Terafab chip project, and a lunar economy. They also flagged a practical warning sign: SpaceX has begun turning away new Falcon 9 customers for launches after 2028 and is no longer accepting reservations for its rideshare programme.
The Numbers Behind the Skepticism
SpaceX generated $4.69 billion in revenue in the first quarter of 2026 but posted an operating loss of $1.94 billion. Starlink remained the stable core, contributing $3.26 billion in revenue and $1.19 billion in operating profit. The AI division, by contrast, produced $818 million in revenue and an operating loss of $2.47 billion. HSBC projects full-year revenue will more than double to $38.2 billion but does not expect GAAP profitability until 2027, with positive free cash flow arriving no earlier than 2030. Cumulative capital requirements over that period are estimated at roughly $106 billion.
A Two-Day Window That Could Define the Summer
The calendar is about to deliver a one-two punch. On August 4, SpaceX will report its first quarterly results as a public company. Two days later, on August 6, a lock-up agreement covering 911.5 million shares expires — equivalent to 1.41 times the current free float. Short interest has already climbed to about 32% of the float, up from 29% the prior week, representing roughly $25 billion in bearish bets. Elon Musk has publicly warned short sellers that their positions have low survival odds, and the stock did stage a modest weekend recovery of about 3% after Macquarie reaffirmed its Outperform rating.
CEO Musk also confirmed that Flight 14 will attempt the first tower catch of the Starship upper stage, using the “Mechazilla” arms at Starbase to snatch the vehicle out of the air. Success would mark a critical step toward rapid, full reusability. For now, though, the market is focused on a more immediate question: whether the combination of a maiden earnings report and a record wave of newly tradable shares will push the stock below its lows or finally provide a floor.
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