SpaceX has spent the past week proving it can raise money and make it. Whether it can build what that money is meant to buy is a separate question, and one that a lawsuit filed in Louisiana has just pushed into the foreground.
The company’s third-quarter 2026 results, released October 20, offer the strongest evidence yet that the business has turned a corner. Revenue reached $14.575 billion, up 161% year over year, and net income came in at $4.404 billion. A year earlier, SpaceX had posted a net loss of $1.054 billion. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter totaled $8.8 billion.
That swing from red to black matters more than the headline top-line figure. It gives investors a firmer base from which to judge the company’s next wave of spending — but it does not pre-approve that spending. A strong quarter is not a guarantee that every new initiative will land with similar force.
A $40 Billion Lease, and the Gap Between a Commitment and a Business
On the financing side, SpaceX announced a binding commitment for a framework financing lease worth roughly $40 billion. The GPUs and related equipment will come from a vehicle managed by Apollo Global Management, which led the financing partners; Goldman Sachs handled the structuring. The hardware in question is NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin graphics processors and associated gear, intended to underpin AI computing capacity and cloud services.
The deal is expected to close before the end of 2026, with individual lease agreements scheduled to begin as equipment is delivered in the first half of 2027. Those are three distinct milestones — commitment, closing, deployment — and investors would do well to keep them apart. A financing commitment is neither reported revenue from AI services nor proof those services will be profitable. Procurement, delivery and commissioning all sit between the signature and the first dollar of productive computing.
Pivotal Research raised its price target on the stock from $230 to $260 on Thursday and reiterated its buy rating, citing the quarterly results and management commentary on potential AI services revenue. The logic is understandable, but it carries a caveat: the earnings are measurable, while the AI revenue talk describes an opportunity. Weighting the two equally turns an option into a booked contribution before its time.
Capex Is the Number That Reframes the Story
The scale of the buildout is already visible in the filings. SpaceX invested $19.593 billion in the third quarter of 2026, and it has guided to capital expenditures of $35 billion to $40 billion for the fourth quarter — a forecast, not money already spent.
That figure shifts the lens from growth to execution. The AI division has become SpaceX’s largest revenue contributor, while Starlink still delivers the biggest profit contribution. Revenue leadership and earnings power now sit in different parts of the company, and the next investment wave will be judged on whether it can bridge them.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Louisiana Lawsuit Puts Permitting on the Agenda
Capital alone cannot organize an expansion. The Vermilion Citizens Coalition and three residents filed suit yesterday against the approval of incentives for the planned Louisiana spaceport, alleging violations of the state’s open-meetings law. They are seeking to overturn the August 25 approval by the industrial development board. These are the plaintiffs’ allegations, not court findings, and the suit targets the conduct of public bodies — no wrongdoing by SpaceX can be inferred from it.
Still, the case is relevant to shareholders. A company can raise capital and set technical goals, but whether usable infrastructure emerges also depends on decisions outside its own organization. That distinction risks disappearing behind the enormous sums attached to SpaceX.
Starship and a Merger Question Complete the Picture
The next operational test arrives in November, when SpaceX aims to catch both stages of its Starship rocket on the next test flight, Elon Musk said on October 20. That attempt is a more concrete proving ground than any new financing total, and its outcome is not preordained; nor would a successful test translate directly into a specific financial return.
Corporate structure adds another layer. Musk said the same day that both boards had formed independent special committees to discuss a potential combination with Tesla. No agreement has been announced. Reuters reported concerns among people involved in the talks about due diligence, potential delays and disadvantage to SpaceX shareholders.
Operational friction belongs in the picture too. Reuters reported on October 14 that Ukrainian officials accused SpaceX of restricting Starlink service for military terminals, complicating drone operations — allegations that are not a final determination of the facts but should not vanish from a pure growth narrative.
The verdict here is constructive rather than euphoric. Earnings are moving in the right direction, and the financing widens the runway. Higher expectations, though, still need operational delivery behind them. Today’s 2.3% share price move does not substitute for that proof. Solid progress on the announced projects would be more convincing than the next big number.
Ad
SpaceX Stock: Buy or Sell?! New SpaceX Analysis from October 27 delivers the answer:
The latest SpaceX figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for SpaceX investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from October 27.
SpaceX: Buy or sell? Read more here...
