SpaceX successfully launched a classified payload for the US intelligence community this week, yet the company’s stock continues to languish near multi-month lows as investors fixate on a confluence of near-term headwinds. The disconnect between operational excellence and market sentiment has rarely been starker.
Shares closed at €98.20 on Wednesday, down 3.95% on the day, before recovering slightly to €98.85 on Thursday — a gain of just 0.66%. The stock now sits a mere 4.30% above its 52-week low, having shed 33.86% over the past 30 days and 49.17% from its all-time high of €194.46 set on June 16. The relative strength index has dipped to 33.3, firmly in oversold territory.
Falcon 9 Delivers for the NRO, But the Market Shrugs
Early on July 30, a Falcon 9 lifted off from Cape Canaveral carrying a classified payload for the National Reconnaissance Office under mission designation NROL-95. The launch, adjusted overnight, proceeded as scheduled and marks the third NRO mission SpaceX has flown under the National Security Space Launch Phase 2 contract, awarded by the US Space Systems Command in August 2024. For the NRO, it is the fourth launch of 2026, following NROL-105, NROL-172, and NROL-179.
The mission used a flight-proven first stage — Booster B1096, making its seventh flight after previous assignments including NASA’s IMAP mission and the CRS-34 cargo resupply run. Approximately 8.5 minutes after liftoff, the booster touched down at Landing Zone 2, marking the 18th landing at that site and the 642nd booster recovery overall for SpaceX.
The flight underscores SpaceX’s dominance in the US national security launch market. The NSSL Phase 2 contract, awarded in 2020, splits business between SpaceX and United Launch Alliance, with SpaceX handling the lion’s share. On Thursday, Reuters reported that the US Space Force has awarded SpaceX an additional $1.6 billion contract for 18 Falcon 9 launches, reinforcing the sustained demand from government customers.
The Lock-Up Clock Is Ticking
Yet even a $1.6 billion contract has failed to offset the downward pressure from a looming lock-up expiration. The post-IPO lock-up structure allows early investors and employees to sell shares in staggered tranches of 7%, with dates spread across August, September, and October. A particularly large tranche opens two trading days after SpaceX’s first quarterly report as a public company — the Q2 2026 earnings release, scheduled for August 4. Another major selling window follows the subsequent earnings report.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
The numbers are staggering: roughly 911 million shares held by insiders become eligible for sale just two days after earnings, representing about one-fifth of all locked-up shares. That could dramatically expand the free float. Short sellers have already positioned aggressively — S3 Partners reports that approximately 35% of the float is now sold short, with a notional value of roughly $26 billion, making SpaceX one of the most heavily shorted stocks on Wall Street.
Earnings Expectations and the AI Cost Burden
For the second quarter, analysts expect revenue of $6.82 billion and a net loss of $0.29 per share. In the first quarter, SpaceX reported revenue of $4.7 billion alongside a net loss of $4.3 billion. The company’s heavy investment in AI infrastructure is weighing on profitability — roughly three-quarters of the $10 billion in capital spending during the first quarter flowed into AI data centers. While Starlink generated operating profit last fiscal year, the overall picture remains clouded by spending on ventures like Grok and Cursor, whose revenue potential has yet to materialize.
The valuation gap with peers is striking: SpaceX trades at a price-to-sales ratio of roughly 77, compared with an average of around 7 for comparable technology stocks. That chasm fuels concern that a portion of the current market capitalization rests on speculative bets about future AI earnings.
Analyst Views Diverge Sharply
Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas has warned that a slide below $100 would signal investors are systematically undervaluing SpaceX’s AI activities. Deutsche Bank’s Edison Yu takes a more bullish stance, maintaining a buy rating with a $255 price target and arguing that the shift of resources from the Falcon 9 program toward Starship is strategically sound.
Starship itself continues to make progress. On July 25, the Super Heavy-Starship combination completed its 13th test flight, with the booster executing a precise but “hard” water landing off the Texas Gulf Coast while the upper stage continued toward the Indian Ocean. Remarkably, the upper stage remained intact after splashdown, with SpaceX posting a photo on X five days later showing the vehicle still floating. During that flight, 20 Starlink V3 satellites were deployed. Yet the stock fell more than 4% in the subsequent trading session — a reminder that technical milestones are currently being overshadowed by the calendar of financial catalysts.
With earnings due Tuesday, the lock-up expiry two days later, and a record short interest to contend with, the next two weeks will test whether SpaceX’s operational momentum can eventually translate into share price support — or whether the stock’s slide has further to run.
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