The Falcon 9 lifted off on Sunday carrying 24 Starlink satellites, but for SpaceX investors the real payload was a number: 75. That marks the total launches of the workhorse rocket in the first half of the year, nearly 60 of which were dedicated to expanding the company’s own satellite internet constellation. The booster’s first stage landed on a drone ship in the Pacific for the 17th time, a routine feat that underscores the manufacturing and operational rhythm now expected of the company.
That rhythm is the bedrock of SpaceX’s valuation. The stock, which debuted at $135 on June 11, rocketed to an all-time high of $225 before sliding back to around $153 in recent sessions. On Monday, it bounced to $157 on the back of the latest launch. The volatility reflects a deeper tension: engineering excellence is pulling one way, while mounting financial obligations pull the other.
SpaceX’s balance sheet tells a sobering story alongside the orbital successes. Revenue grew 33% last year to $18.7 billion, powered by Starlink’s $11.4 billion contribution and a subscriber base that has now swelled to 12 million paying customers. The mobile-services segment, meanwhile, served roughly 7.4 million devices monthly earlier this spring. Yet the cost of building the next generation of hardware — namely the Starship system — has pushed capital expenditure to $26.9 billion. The result was a net loss of $4.9 billion in 2025 and free cash flow of negative $19.8 billion over the trailing twelve months.
To refinance existing obligations, SpaceX recently placed a $25 billion bond, bringing total debt to $60.5 billion. That leverage is fueling heated debate on Wall Street about the company’s two-trillion-dollar market capitalization.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Index inclusion is providing a counterweight to those concerns. FTSE Russell granted SpaceX rare fast-track entry into the Russell 1000, a move that forces index-tracking funds to rebalance their portfolios. Analysts estimate mechanical buying of between $22 billion and $27 billion. The trading frenzy was already evident on the Friday before inclusion, when nearly $19 billion worth of SpaceX shares changed hands in the final minutes of the session as fund managers scrambled to align their holdings.
The forced buying is clashing with profit-taking from retail investors, particularly in South Korea, who had been among the most aggressive buyers post-IPO. Last week, Korean traders sold a net $69.2 million in SpaceX stock, rotating into semiconductor names instead. That dynamic — retail selling into institutional buying — has kept the stock in a narrow range near its current level.
The Russell 1000 is just the opening act. On July 7, SpaceX is set to join the Nasdaq-100, a move J.P. Morgan estimates will funnel an additional $4.3 billion in passive inflows. Inclusion in the S&P 500 remains a distant possibility, with analysts seeing 2027 as the earliest realistic date.
Beyond index mechanics, the next major catalyst is the Starship test flight scheduled for the end of June. A successful flight could inject fresh fundamental momentum into the stock, reinforcing the narrative that SpaceX’s engineering prowess translates into market value — even as the company’s debt load continues to climb. For now, the market is watching both the launch pad and the balance sheet, weighing operational firepower against financial strain.
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