SpaceX notched a rarely highlighted milestone this week that underscores the sheer scale of its operations: the company launched its 600th mission using a previously flown first-stage booster. On July 14, a Falcon 9 lifted off from Cape Canaveral carrying 29 Starlink satellites, marking the 600th re-flight of a booster in the company’s history. Just eight hours earlier, another Falcon 9 had launched from Vandenberg Space Force Base with 27 Starlink satellites. The feat brings the Starlink constellation above 10,000 active satellites — roughly two-thirds of all active satellites in orbit worldwide.
Yet the operational rhythm has done little to lift SpaceX’s share price. The stock traded at €120.98 on Wednesday, up 1.44% from the prior close, but remains perilously close to its 52-week low of €119.04 touched on Tuesday. That low sits only about 1.63% below the current price. Since hitting an all-time high of €194.46 on June 16 — just days after its IPO at $135 per share — the equity has shed roughly 38% of its value. Cumulatively, the market capitalization has contracted by an estimated $850 billion from the June peak, according to multiple reports, and the company’s valuation now stands at about €1.67 trillion ($1.85 trillion). The selloff has been so severe that founder Elon Musk’s net worth has dropped to below $900 billion, down from $1.45 trillion in mid-June.
Starship Flight 13 Becomes the Catalyst in Focus
Investor attention now shifts almost entirely to the next test flight of the Starship system. The Federal Aviation Administration closed its investigation into Flight 12 on July 14 and granted a launch license for the 13th attempt. The window opens on Thursday, July 16, at 17:45 U.S. Central Time (23:45 UTC) and runs for 90 minutes. This flight is only the second outing for the upgraded Starship V3 variant and the first time the vehicle will carry operational payloads: 20 prototype Starlink V3 satellites, which will be deployed in suborbital trajectory. SpaceX also plans to relight a single Raptor engine in space, while the Super Heavy booster is slated for a controlled water landing in the Gulf of Mexico.
The outcome is widely seen as a binary event for the stock. A successful flight would validate the production ramp and satellite deployment plans for the rest of 2026. A failure, after the loss of control over the Super Heavy booster during Flight 12 in May, could deepen doubts about the trillion-dollar valuation. The FAA’s investigation had already forced a pause in Starship launches, and any further problems would pressure an already nervous investor base.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Analyst Community Deeply Divided on Valuation
The divergence among Wall Street analysts covering SpaceX is unusually stark. Evercore ISI initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and a $230 price target, citing Starship, Starlink, and the Grok AI unit as growth engines. Analyst Kutgun Maral described SpaceX as a vertically integrated company whose model implies 106% revenue growth and 157% EBITDA growth by 2028. At the opposite end, MoffettNathanson’s Julie Zhu issued a Neutral rating and a $131 target after a 93-page report that dismissed SpaceX’s stated addressable market of $30 trillion as unrealistic and flagged supply constraints on planned orbital data centers. The full range of targets is staggering: from $62 (Morningstar) to $800 (Raymond James), with Morgan Stanley at $300, Bank of America at $235, and Goldman Sachs at $205. Despite the dispersion, over 80% of analysts maintain buy ratings.
Debt Markets and Lock-Up Add Pressure
Beyond the Starship risk, the stock is weighed down by financial mechanics. SpaceX placed its first-ever bond issue worth $20 billion to fund capital-intensive expansion. The first quarter of 2026 saw an operating loss of $1.94 billion against capital expenditure of $10.1 billion. Additionally, after the release of second-quarter results — expected in early August — a staggered tranche of insider shares will become tradable, potentially boosting the free float from its current minuscule level of 4% to 5%. That prospect has kept a lid on any meaningful recovery despite the stock’s proximity to its IPO price.
Technical Picture: Volatility and a Make-or-Break Level
The stock’s 14-day relative strength index stands at 41.2, indicating that the oversold condition that briefly flashed last week has dissipated. But the 30-day annualized volatility of nearly 96% leaves little room for complacency. Any sharp move — up or down — around the Starship flight is almost guaranteed. With the stock trading just above the IPO price of $135 (roughly €119 at current exchange rates), a decisive break below that level could trigger further selling from investors who have been hanging on. Conversely, a successful Starship flight might finally give the bulls the catalyst they have been waiting for, pulling the stock away from the abyss of its year low.
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