The drama surrounding SpaceX extends far beyond its stock price swings. The company’s debut bond, a $25 billion issuance that drew nearly $90 billion in orders, is now trading at a steep discount that has cost investors roughly $305 million in paper losses relative to government bonds. The head of North American investment-grade credit at Invesco Advisers, which manages nearly $2.5 trillion, described the bond as “very sloppy” and “really, really disappointing” in a Bloomberg TV interview on Thursday.
The mispricing is stark. The 2056 maturity is trading about 0.28 percentage points above its issue price, but the market spread has blown out to over 2% — well above the 0.95% typical for BBB-rated debt, the rating all three major agencies assigned to SpaceX. That level edges into junk territory, a sign that traditional buyers such as pension funds and insurers have yet to embrace the credit.
The pain in fixed income mirrors the volatility in equities. This week alone, the stock tumbled 7.80% to $157.54 after a Wall Street Journal report claimed SpaceX had shown a prototype handheld device to partners before the IPO. Elon Musk called the story “completely false” on X, but the denial did little to stem the selling — the shares gave back most of their post-IPO gains before closing Friday at $157.98. The broader market was calm, with the S&P 500 down just 0.22%.
Analyst coverage remains deeply split. Since the quiet period ends on July 7, only 13 analysts have published formal ratings: seven buy or strong buy, four hold, and two sell. The average price target in that group stands at roughly $229, though a separate poll cited by Barron’s puts the consensus closer to $240. The range is enormous: Arete Research’s Andrew Beale set a $401 target with a buy recommendation, arguing the market underestimates Starship and Starlink V3, while Kailash Concepts warns that the stock trades at 100 times annual revenue — a multiple that historically preceded steep declines. Daiwa started neutral at $175, and CFRA’s Keith Snyder is among the few with a sell, citing post-IPO valuation indigestion in the space sector.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Still, SpaceX continues to rack up operational milestones. On July 2, the upper stage of the next Starship test vehicle — internally called Ship 40 — completed a full-duration static fire at Starbase in Texas, firing all six Raptor engines for a full minute. The test clears the path for the 13th integrated flight of the Starship system, expected later this month, with a focus on relighting the engines in space and refining the Super Heavy booster’s ocean landing. The Starlink constellation also keeps expanding: a Falcon 9 launched 24 satellites from Vandenberg Space Force Base on July 1, marking the 79th mission of the year.
All eyes are now on Tuesday, July 7. SpaceX will join the Nasdaq-100 at market open, triggering forced buying by index funds that could reach $4.3 billion based on the company’s weighting. That same day, the mandatory quiet period for underwriting banks expires, unleashing a wave of fresh analyst reports. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who initiated coverage on Tuesday with a $190 price target and an outperform rating, is one of the first — but the field is expected to swell from roughly a dozen to as many as 50 analysts, according to Barron’s.
The convergence of the bond debacle, the volatile stock debut, and these two catalysts sets up a tense week for a company already carrying a first-quarter net loss of $4.28 billion. The stock is trading at about 54 times expected annual sales, and chart watchers note resistance at $174–$175 and a technical reference point near the 50- and 200-day moving averages around $161–$164. The next fixed event for management to address the profitability narrative: earnings on August 6.
Ad
SpaceX Stock: Buy or Sell?! New SpaceX Analysis from July 4 delivers the answer:
The latest SpaceX figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for SpaceX investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from July 4.
SpaceX: Buy or sell? Read more here...
