The numbers tell a stark story. SpaceX shares closed Friday at €101.18, shedding 2.60% in a single session and leaving the stock just 3.73% above its 52-week low of €97.54, a level touched only on July 23. Over the past 30 days, the equity has cratered 25.71%, a decline that has pushed the 14-day relative strength index to 33.9 — deep in technically oversold territory. The annualized 30-day volatility sits at a jittery 67.12%.
Yet Friday also brought a genuine operational milestone. The Super Heavy-Starship combination completed its 13th test flight, and for the first time, it delivered a real payload to orbit: 20 satellites from the new Starlink V3 generation. That marks the transition from testing to commercial operations for SpaceX’s high-margin telecom business. The upper stage splashed down in the Indian Ocean with unprecedented precision, even if the Super Heavy booster suffered an incomplete ignition during its landing attempt and crashed into the Gulf of Mexico. CEO Elon Musk has already signaled that after data review, the next flight will attempt to catch the Starship upper stage directly with the “Mechazilla” chopstick arms at the launch tower.
HSBC’s Measured Take
Against that backdrop, HSBC launched coverage this week with a “Hold” rating and a $115 price target. The bank employed a sum-of-the-parts valuation with a double “innovation premium” — a nod to Musk’s track record of commercializing disruptive technologies, modeled on Tesla’s first decade as a public company. Even with that generous framing, HSBC concluded that the market has already priced in the good news: Starlink’s expansion, rising launch cadence, and the company’s artificial intelligence ambitions.
The bank’s most optimistic scenario, the “Blue Sky” case, pegs fair value at $293 per share. That projection, however, depends on Starship becoming commercially viable by 2027 and launch capacity continuing to grow. HSBC also flagged several speculative bets — orbital data centers, space-based AI infrastructure, and the Terafab semiconductor project — as unproven. Governance adds another layer of caution: Musk retains effective control through his voting rights, and the bank warned investors to watch for expiring lock-up periods that could significantly expand the free float after upcoming quarterly reports.
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Alphabet’s $94 Billion Paper Stake
Adding to the narrative, Alphabet disclosed for the first time since SpaceX’s IPO that its stake in the company is worth roughly $94 billion as of June 30. Google and Fidelity together invested $1 billion in SpaceX back in January 2015, securing nearly 10% of the company. That paper gain remains just that — paper. Some $14.1 billion of the position is locked up until the third quarter of 2027, while the remainder is subject to standard post-IPO restrictions that will begin to phase out after SpaceX’s first quarterly report. Given the stock’s subsequent decline, Alphabet’s holding is now likely worth less than the balance sheet figure.
The August Gauntlet
The coming week is the last quiet stretch before two major catalysts. On August 4, SpaceX will report second-quarter 2026 results after the market close — its first earnings release since going public. Investors are looking for clarity on Starlink’s cash flow and the capital expenditure required to ramp Starship production. Two days later, on August 6, a lock-up period expires. Up to 20% of previously restricted shares could become tradable, offering the first real test of how much institutional and insider capital is ready to exit.
The central tension at SpaceX is now laid bare. On one side sits dominance in commercial launch and satellite internet. On the other, ambitious bets on AI and space infrastructure that, in HSBC’s view, face stiffer competition than the current valuation assumes. For now, all eyes are on whether the €100 support level can hold before both events inject a fresh wave of volatility.
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