SpaceX’s stock clawed back some ground on Tuesday, snapping a seven-session losing streak that had driven the shares to a fresh 52-week low of €104.88 just a day earlier. The equity closed at €108.36, up 3.24%, a move that market technicians largely attribute to oversold conditions rather than a fundamental shift in sentiment. The relative strength index sits at 36.1, a level that typically signals a stock has been sold too aggressively and is ripe for a bounce.
The recovery came against a backdrop of mounting bearish bets. According to CNBC, the proportion of SpaceX’s free float sold short has surged from a range of 5% to 7% just a few weeks ago to an unprecedented 32%. That translates to roughly 206 million shares, representing a wager of approximately $25 billion against the company — the largest short position since the stock began trading in June. Elon Musk weighed in publicly, warning that companies carrying significant short interest face a “very low” probability of survival, a remark that appeared to catalyze Tuesday’s buying.
A $109 Billion Lockup Looms Over Earnings Day
All eyes are now fixed on August 4, 2026, when SpaceX will report its first quarterly earnings as a public company after the closing bell. The event is critical not just for the financials but because it automatically triggers the expiration of a lockup agreement. On August 6, two days after the earnings release, 911.5 million restricted shares — roughly 20% of insider holdings with a market value in the tens of billions of dollars — will become tradable. A further tranche of 455.8 million shares could be unlocked if the stock closes at least 30% above its IPO price of $175.50 on five of the ten trading days before the report. Given that the current share price sits well below that threshold, that condition appears unlikely to be met. Additional blocks of approximately 319 million shares each are scheduled for release around August 21 and September 10.
Musk’s own stake of 6.4 billion shares remains locked until June 2027. The current free float is estimated at just 555 million shares — a mere 5% of the total outstanding count of roughly 13 billion. That tight supply explains why each lockup expiration carries the potential for significant price disruption.
Starship Test Rescheduled as Operational Challenges Mount
The company’s near-term narrative is also tied to the performance of its Starship program. A first attempt at the 13th integrated test flight on July 16 was aborted due to a failed engine ignition. SpaceX has now rescheduled the launch for Thursday, July 23, with a 90-minute window opening at 17:45 local time from Starbase, Texas. The mission aims for a controlled, soft ocean landing of the upper stage — a milestone considered crucial for NASA’s Artemis III program, which remains on track for a 2027 demonstration mission.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SpaceX?
Operationally, SpaceX remains loss-making. The company posted a net loss of $4.9 billion for fiscal 2025 and an additional $4.28 billion in the first quarter of 2026. Starlink, with over 10 million subscribers globally, is the only profitable segment and accounts for the bulk of revenue. The Starship program and SpaceXAI — the artificial intelligence business that emerged from the February 2026 acquisition of xAI — have yet to contribute positive earnings.
Analysts Divided on Valuation as Revenue Expectations Soar
The analyst community is sharply split on the stock’s prospects. Macquarie’s Paul Golding maintains a buy rating with a $250 price target, describing the recent pullback as an attractive entry point. The broader consensus ranges from $234.78 to roughly $241, with a majority of analysts recommending a buy. On the other side, investor David Desjardins has issued a clear sell recommendation, arguing that the stock trades at 41 times consensus revenue estimates for 2026 and that market expectations imply SpaceX would need to generate over $2 trillion in revenue by 2035 — a fiftyfold increase from current levels that he considers unrealistic.
Two Successful Falcon 9 Launches Provide a Brief Tailwind
Tuesday’s price action was also supported by a pair of successful Falcon 9 missions within 24 hours. From Cape Canaveral, a Falcon 9 launched Northrop Grumman’s Mission Robotic Vehicle and three Mission Extension Pods toward geostationary orbit, marking SpaceX’s entry into the commercial satellite servicing market. The booster used, B1069, completed its 32nd and final flight. Simultaneously, another Falcon 9 lifted off from Vandenberg Space Force Base carrying 24 Starlink satellites for Group 17-39. The back-to-back launches demonstrated the company’s ability to resolve technical issues quickly, following a rare engine abort just a day earlier.
Despite the rebound, the stock remains 44.3% below its 52-week high set in mid-June, shortly after the IPO. The annualized 30-day volatility stands at nearly 91%, reflecting the intense uncertainty surrounding the upcoming earnings, the lockup wave, and the rescheduled Starship test. For investors, August 4 is shaping up as the defining moment to assess whether SpaceX can substantiate its lofty growth narrative before a flood of previously restricted shares hits the market.
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