A crowded Thursday for SpaceX investors delivered a triple dose of pressure: the expiration of another lock-up period, a slipped timeline for the Starship program, and the first bearish analyst call since the company’s public listing. The shares closed 4.7 percent lower at 114.00 euros, extending a weekly decline to 7.0 percent and leaving the stock roughly 41 percent below its June record of 194.46 euros.
Lock-Up Wave Adds Supply at an Awkward Moment
The second tranche of previously restricted shares became tradable on Thursday, with up to 319 million shares released under the so-called 70-day lock-up provision. That follows the first wave on August 6, when roughly 911.5 million shares hit the market, lifting the free float from about 5 percent to 12 percent of total shares outstanding. The latest release expands the available supply further — just as demand shows little sign of absorbing it.
The pattern is familiar to students of post-IPO mechanics: staggered lock-up expirations for early investors and employees tend to weigh on share prices as supply outstrips near-term buying interest. What makes this release different is its timing. The additional shares are landing in a market already grappling with a revised Starship schedule and a fresh sell-side warning, compounding the downward pressure.
DZ Bank Initiates With Sell Rating
Adding to the bearish tone, DZ Bank launched coverage of SpaceX with a sell recommendation and a price target of 100 dollars. Analyst Markus Leistner argues that the company’s massive capital requirements for its long-term business ventures are difficult to justify at current valuation levels. The bank’s stance highlights the tension between SpaceX’s impressive revenue growth and its persistent operating losses and heavy cash burn as it simultaneously expands Starship launch infrastructure and the Starlink satellite network.
The valuation debate has been simmering for days. On Tuesday, NYU Stern professor Scott Galloway publicly called the stock “crazy overvalued,” pegging a fair value of just 10 to 30 dollars per share. He attributed the disconnect to market mechanics and an artificially low free float prior to the lock-up releases.
Starship Timeline Slips Further
CEO Elon Musk announced on X on Thursday that the planned catch of the Starship upper stage using the launch tower’s mechanical arms would be delayed by several months. During the second-quarter earnings call on August 4, Musk had targeted a late-August attempt as part of Flight 14, pending regulatory approval.
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According to Musk, the landing precision achieved during Flight 13 on July 24 was already sufficient for a genuine tower catch — the missing piece was the necessary on-site infrastructure. The delay nonetheless cools near-term trader expectations. Musk now anticipates the first reuse of a flown Starship upper stage only in late 2026 or early 2027.
Operations Remain Busy Despite Market Headwinds
The capital markets story contrasts sharply with the operational picture. On Wednesday, SpaceX completed its 100th successful mission of 2026, launching 24 Starlink satellites from Vandenberg Space Force Base. The Starlink constellation now comprises 11,003 satellites in orbit.
The company also recovered the “Ship 40” upper stage, which had landed intact in the Indian Ocean on July 24 and drifted for 24 days before being towed to Christmas Island for technical analysis. Flight 14 remains scheduled for late August from Starbase, Texas, with plans to deploy Starlink Version 3 satellites into operational orbit and attempt another upper-stage recovery.
The operational momentum is reflected in the numbers. SpaceX reported second-quarter revenue of 7.81 billion dollars, comfortably beating the consensus estimate of 6.82 billion dollars, with adjusted EBITDA of 3.54 billion dollars. Starlink reached 12 million active subscribers during the quarter.
Regulatory Uncertainty Adds Another Layer
Investors are also tracking a Federal Aviation Administration proposal that would exempt commercial space launch and reentry permits from 13 federal environmental laws, including the Endangered Species Act. The public comment period runs until August 31, and environmental and tribal organizations have already signaled strong opposition. As the largest beneficiary of streamlined launch approvals, SpaceX has a significant stake in the outcome for its future launch cadence.
Volatility Remains the Norm
With an annualized 30-day volatility of 92 percent, sharp swings remain the rule rather than the exception for SpaceX shares. The stock currently trades about 8.3 percent below its 50-day moving average of 124.38 euros, suggesting the recent weakness extends beyond a short-term reaction and reflects the structural overhang of share releases.
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