The mass-production launch of SK Hynix’s next-generation HBM4 memory chip could not have come at a more pivotal moment. On 14 July 2026, the South Korean chipmaker began turning out the 12-layer high-bandwidth modules for Nvidia’s forthcoming “Vera Rubin” AI platform — final-specification units that have already passed the customer’s quality certification. The company plans to ramp shipment volumes sharply from September. Yet the stock that has ridden the artificial-intelligence boom to a year-to-date gain of 183.14% is still nursing wounds from a bruising week that saw its Seoul-listed shares suffer their worst single-day loss in nearly two decades.
The bipolar market mood reflects a deeper tug-of-war. For bulls, the HBM4 production start is precisely the catalyst needed to restore confidence after a 15.37% crash on Monday sent the stock to 1,845,000 Won. By Tuesday the shares had recovered 3.69% to close at 1,913,000 Won, helped by the production news and a proposal from South Korea’s ruling party to ease capital-raising rules for strategic industries — a move that would simplify the formation of joint ventures for new fabrication plants, provided SK Hynix retains majority control. The company has already earmarked the $26.5 billion raised in its 10 July Nasdaq debut — the largest ever US listing by a foreign company — for the first expansion phase of the Yongin semiconductor cluster and the Cheongju packaging facility P&T7. Together with Samsung Electronics, it has pledged roughly 800 trillion Won to cement the country’s role in the AI hardware supply chain.
But the recovery feels fragile. The annualized 30-day volatility stands at 123.57%, a level that screams investor nerves. The 14-day relative strength index has fallen to 38.3, approaching oversold territory, while the 30-day RSI sits at 40.7 — suggesting the stock is only just beginning to edge away from the most distressed readings. On a weekly basis the shares are still down 13.08%, and they trade 35.96% below the 52-week high of 2,987,000 Won hit on 25 June.
Skeptics argue the Nasdaq listing itself may have marked the euphoria peak. American depositary receipts under the ticker SKHY surged 13% on their first day before quickly losing momentum, triggering a textbook “sell-the-news” reaction. The subsequent plunge in Seoul has wiped nearly 20% off the stock in 30 days, reviving an old debate: is the current correction a healthy pullback in a secular uptrend, or the first sign of a cyclical peak in memory chips?
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SK Hynix?
The answer may hinge on the pricing dynamics of SK Hynix’s core product. Because the company locked in a large volume of long-term supply contracts for high-bandwidth memory, the price growth of HBM chips is lagging the broader market. That structural quirk is feeding two competing narratives. Optimists point to South Korea’s semiconductor exports, which surged 193% year-on-year in the first ten days of July, and to the government’s revised 2026 GDP growth forecast of 3.0%, explicitly citing chip-sector records. On this view, HBM4 ramps will lift margins as the product mix shifts to more profitable next-generation modules, and a historic memory shortage projected for 2027 remains a powerful tailwind.
The bears, however, see a margin squeeze ahead. KIS Securities estimates SK Hynix’s second-quarter operating profit at 60.4 trillion Won — a record, but still below the market consensus of 65 trillion Won. They argue that as long as the pre-negotiated HBM contracts cap price increases, the current valuation becomes harder to justify, especially if the broader tech sentiment turns. The extreme volatility amplifies every negative headline.
Technically, the stock’s fate in the near term may be decided by the 100-day moving average of 1,586,940.66 Won. A stabilization above that level would keep the long-term uptrend intact; a decisive break lower would open the path toward the 52-week trough, though the distance remains vast at roughly 335%. On the upside, a convincing recovery could target the 50-day moving average near 2,163,884.51 Won, but that likely requires concrete evidence of sustained AI-server memory demand.
That evidence could arrive shortly. SK Hynix is expected to report second-quarter results around 22 July. The numbers will show whether the margin “normalization” feared by KIS is materializing or whether HBM3E and HBM4 products can surprise on the upside. Until then, the market remains caught between the promise of a new production cycle and the hangover of a record IPO that may have already priced in the best of times.
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