Silver prices experienced a volatile session, initially surging before paring gains as markets digested a fragile geopolitical truce. The metal jumped as much as 5.5% to nearly $77 per ounce on Wednesday following news of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, only to see profit-taking emerge on Thursday. The agreement, brokered by Pakistan, temporarily eased safe-haven flows but remains precarious, with early reports of local clashes already testing the calm.
The immediate price action highlighted silver’s dual nature. While gold often dims as a crisis hedge when tensions ease, silver’s pronounced industrial component makes it more sensitive to shifts in broader market sentiment. This dynamic was clear as the gold-silver ratio dipped below 63, underscoring the white metal’s relative strength in a risk-on environment.
Beneath these daily fluctuations, a powerful fundamental story is building. China, the world’s largest consumer, is vacuuming up physical silver at a record pace. Imports for the first two months of the year soared to an eight-year high of over 790 tonnes, with nearly 470 tonnes arriving in February alone. This voracious appetite is driven by the nation’s booming solar and electronics industries, which now account for over half of global demand. With global mine production unable to keep pace, the market is headed for its sixth consecutive annual supply deficit in 2026. The fact that local prices in China trade at a significant premium to global benchmarks underscores this physical tightness.
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Concurrently, a sharp downturn in oil prices provided a secondary tailwind. Brent and WTI crude plunged by as much as 16.4%, falling below $100 a barrel. Analysts, including Carsten Fritsch of Commerzbank, view this as a significant dampener on inflation risks. The shift has led markets to price in increased odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts by year-end, pulling the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note down to around 4.29%. For a non-yielding asset like silver, falling bond yields enhance its relative attractiveness.
From a chart perspective, the landscape has stabilized following the pullback. The area around $72.00 has solidified as a key support level, successfully defended multiple times in recent sessions. On the upside, resistance at $75.00 currently blocks the path toward $80. The next significant technical hurdle is seen in the $78 to $79 range, which will test the sustainability of any rally. Analysts project a wide price range for 2026 in moderate scenarios, from $65 to $150, with the structural demand from the solar sector a key bullish argument.
All eyes now turn to April 15th for the next major fundamental catalyst. The release of the “World Silver Survey 2026” will provide official data on the global market deficit, which was estimated at 67 million ounces the previous year. A sustained breakout above current resistance may hinge on whether these figures confirm analyst expectations of a further tightening in supply.
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