Following a powerful multi-week surge, the silver market is experiencing a period of consolidation. The momentum that propelled prices higher has temporarily stalled, giving way to a cautious, wait-and-see sentiment among traders. The key question now is whether this marks a genuine trend reversal or merely a healthy pause within a broader upward trajectory.
A Consolidation Within a Strong Uptrend
Despite the recent pullback, silver’s positioning remains robust. The metal closed yesterday at $65.45 per troy ounce, a mere 1.5% below its recent 52-week peak of $66.90. Zooming out reveals the scale of the preceding advance: silver has still posted a substantial gain of over 29% in the past 30 days, with a clearly positive weekly performance.
The current retreat appears moderate and characteristic of a standard technical correction following a rapid price ascent. The market had become overheated, driven by a notable supply squeeze and robust industrial demand. Present activity suggests investors are locking in short-term profits without yet damaging the overarching bullish structure.
Technical indicators support this view. A Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 62 points to a market that is energized but not yet in overbought territory. However, the annualized 30-day volatility hovering near 37% confirms that price swings are likely to remain significant.
U.S. Monetary Policy as a Pivotal Driver
A primary factor behind the current sideways movement is the latest U.S. inflation data. The core Consumer Price Index recently registered its slowest annual rate of increase since early 2021. This development has prompted financial markets to recalibrate their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Silber Preis?
- Core CPI: Weakest rise since early 2021.
- Rate Cut Probability: Markets price approximately a 25% chance of a first cut by January 2026.
- Pricing for April 2026: A rate reduction is almost fully priced into futures markets.
- Silver’s 30-Day Performance: +29.11%.
- Distance from 52-Week High: -1.45%.
Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like precious metals, providing fundamental support for silver. In the near term, however, the rapid price increase has left the market lacking a clear catalyst for an immediate breakout to new highs, fostering a more hesitant atmosphere.
Physical Market Presents a Mixed Picture
Conditions in the physical silver market are currently bifurcated. Reports from China indicate a short-term cooling, with spot prices there recently dipping by nearly 3%. Buyers are reacting to the preceding sharp price jumps by temporarily stepping back.
Nevertheless, the underlying structural backdrop stays tight. Sustained industrial consumption—particularly from the solar energy sector—continues to fuel a supply deficit. This environment supports the longer-term bullish case, where pullbacks are often viewed as buying opportunities once a technically sound support level is established.
Key Levels to Monitor
For traders, the $65 per ounce zone has emerged as a critical short-term reference point. As long as silver holds above this level, the positive outlook for 2026 remains intact. The metal’s current price stands more than 40% above its 52-week low of $46.90, underscoring the magnitude of the rally already witnessed.
The path forward will likely be dictated by forthcoming signals from the U.S. central bank. Should the Fed validate market expectations for future rate cuts, it could provide the next leg up for the metal. Conversely, if the Fed’s tone proves more restrictive than anticipated, a prolonged consolidation phase above the $65 mark would represent a plausible scenario.
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