SAP finds itself in a rare moment of divergent pressures: the imminent resolution of a Brussels antitrust probe that threatened billions in penalties, and the self-imposed silence of a quiet period that leaves investors guessing until the July 23 earnings release. The stock, hovering near €134.96, has lost roughly half its value since last July’s all-time high and sits more than 33% lower since the start of 2026.
The European Commission has been circling SAP’s on-premise maintenance and support market since the autumn of 2025. The accusation: that the German software giant has artificially locked customers into its own service ecosystem, denying third-party providers a level playing field. At stake was a potential fine of up to 10% of annual revenue — for the €34.2 billion in revenue SAP booked in 2024, that could have been a punishing €3.4 billion hit. But SAP has offered concessions, including greater freedom for customers to choose third-party service providers and increased flexibility in software licensing. Brussels has now launched a market test of those proposals. If no significant objections emerge from clients, the case will close without a penalty. SAP itself has said it does not expect any material impact on its balance sheet.
The improving regulatory picture, however, is being tempered by near-term caution on the operational front. Jefferies analyst Charles Brennan this week trimmed his price target on SAP from €230 to €210, though he kept a Buy rating. He described the mood among investors as a “wall of worry,” with capital rotating out of European software stocks in search of more visible growth. That caution is compounded by SAP’s quiet period, which began on June 22 and prohibits management from commenting on revenue or margins until the Q2 report on July 23. The pause leaves the market to trade on speculation rather than fresh guidance.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying SAP?
The company’s most recently published numbers show a business still expanding, albeit at a decelerating clip. In the first quarter of 2026, SAP’s cloud order backlog rose 20% year-over-year to €21.9 billion, and currency-adjusted cloud revenue climbed 27%. But management warned that Q1’s strong performance was flattered by specific quarter-effects and that the second quarter would see a slower growth rate. That deceleration, combined with the broader software-sector slowdown Brennan flagged, is weighing heavily on the stock.
SAP has responded with a massive buyback programme: it is in the market purchasing up to €2.6 billion of its own shares through July 27, part of a larger multi-billion-euro repurchase plan. The buyback provides a floor of sorts, but has not been enough to reverse the broader downtrend. The stock closed at €134.96 on Wednesday, a loss of 1.53%, and now trades just above its 52-week low.
Beyond the near-term noise, SAP is also leaning into artificial intelligence as a long-term growth lever. Its Engagement Cloud arm published fresh data on what it calls “agentic AI,” noting that 21% of consumers already use AI agents for purchasing decisions — a share that jumps to 43% among Generation Z. SAP aims to use such technologies to replace traditional linear campaign models with more dynamic, interactive approaches. Whether that strategy is already showing up in Q2 results remains unclear. The market will get its first look on July 23, when SAP reports after the close. Investors will focus on two key metrics: the cloud gross margin and the cloud order backlog. Those figures will determine whether the software sector’s growth concerns are overblown — and whether the current share price represents a buying opportunity or a value trap.
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