The sharpest weekly decline in SanDisk’s recent history has done little to dim the outlook of several Wall Street analysts, who have been raising their price targets even as the stock shed nearly a third of its value. Shares closed at €1,190.00 on Friday, down 4.03% on the day and 29.17% over seven trading sessions — a rout that has pushed the stock within 5.31% of its 52-week low of €1,130.00 set on July 17. Yet at the same time, the average analyst target has climbed to $2,144.14, implying roughly 33% upside from current levels.
Sector-Wide Profit-Taking, Not Company Weakness
The sell-off has little to do with SanDisk’s own operations. Instead, it reflects a broad risk-off move across the semiconductor space, triggered in part by rising oil prices and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. Investors have been cashing in profits after a staggering rally that saw SanDisk surge by as much as 640% from the start of the year, while rival Micron gained up to 244% in 2026. The correction has been amplified by chatter from retail-trading communities, analysts note, rather than any deterioration in fundamentals.
Technical indicators suggest the pullback may be nearing an extreme. The relative strength index has fallen to 38.8, signaling oversold territory. From the June record high of €2,060.00, the stock is now 42.23% lower.
Meta Signs On as Long-Term Flash Customer
In the middle of the sell-off, a bullish company-specific catalyst emerged. Meta Platforms has secured SanDisk as a long-term supplier of flash memory for its data centers, according to an internal memo reviewed by Reuters. The deal supports Meta’s plan to launch a new AI chip in September and double its AI computing capacity to 14 gigawatts by next year. The contract is part of a broader pattern: SanDisk had previously disclosed five multi-year supply agreements, three signed in the third fiscal quarter and two afterward. Those three earlier deals alone are expected to generate at least $42 billion in revenue — more than three times the company’s trailing twelve-month revenue of $13.2 billion.
Analyst Upgrades Proliferate as Earnings Approach
The widening gap between share price and analyst sentiment has become a defining feature of the current period. Evercore ISI’s Amit Daryanani raised his price target from $1,400 to $3,100 and reiterated an Outperform rating. Citi held its target at $2,500, citing favorable supply dynamics and sustained AI demand for memory. Goldman Sachs’ James Schneider boosted his target from $1,200 to $2,200 on July 5 and maintained a Buy rating, pointing to tight NAND supply chains and expectations for a strong quarterly report.
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Not every firm shares the same enthusiasm. Argus Research initiated coverage with a Hold rating, acknowledging SanDisk’s leadership in NAND flash and high-capacity SSDs but flagging the risk of demand softening. Morningstar has been more cautious, arguing that NAND flash is ultimately a commodity business with limited pricing power, vulnerable to oversupply once the current boom fades.
Kioxia Partnership and Production Milestone
Even amid the stock turbulence, SanDisk and its long-standing partner Kioxia have started production of the tenth generation of 3D NAND flash memory at the Fab2 facility in Kitakami, Japan. The new capacity is aimed at enterprise computing, hyperscale cloud infrastructure, and AI workloads — a pipeline that management hopes will provide a buffer against the cyclical price swings that historically define the NAND industry.
Two Key Dates Loom
Investors now face a binary period. SanDisk is scheduled to report results for its fourth fiscal quarter on August 5, followed by an investor day on August 13. The company has guided for revenue in a range of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $30.00 to $33.00. In the prior quarter, revenue hit $5.95 billion, a 97% sequential increase and a 251% year-over-year jump, led by a 645% surge in data center revenue.
Whether the stock can reclaim its footing will likely depend on whether the August events convince the market that SanDisk’s long-term supply contracts can insulate it from the volatile cycles that have historically defined the NAND business. For now, the gap between a €1,190 share price and a $42 billion order backlog has rarely been wider.
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