The numbers tell a peculiar story at Salesforce. After six consecutive quarters of beating earnings estimates, the cloud software giant finds its stock mired in a deep slump — down 30.84% since the start of the year and 42.39% over the past twelve months. Shares closed at €149.74 on Friday, gaining 4.65% in a session that felt more like a bounce than a reversal. The disconnect between operating performance and market sentiment has rarely been wider.
That gap will be put to the test on May 27, when Salesforce reports first-quarter results after the U.S. market close, followed by a webcast at 5 p.m. Eastern. For management, the stakes are unusually high. The company has promised to provide clearer disclosure on AI-related revenue, and investors want proof that its Agentforce platform is generating paying customers, not just product buzz.
Analyst expectations sit squarely within Salesforce’s own guidance. The company has forecast revenue of $11.03 billion to $11.08 billion for the quarter, while consensus estimates peg the figure at $11.06 billion. Earnings per share are expected to land between $3.11 and $3.13, a step down from the $3.81 reported in the prior quarter — which itself came in well ahead of Wall Street estimates. That track record of five straight beats has done little to shield the stock from a punishing selloff.
What worries the market goes beyond any single quarter. Salesforce’s traditional licensing model, which charges per user, faces an existential question as AI agents take over routine tasks in sales, service, and marketing. If customers shrink their headcount or push for usage-based pricing, the revenue math changes fundamentally. A forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14 looks cheap for a software company generating more than $16.5 billion in free cash flow, but it also reflects that exact anxiety.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Salesforce?
The analyst community is split into two camps. On the optimistic side, Morgan Stanley maintains an “Overweight” rating with a $287 price target, TD Cowen rates the stock a “Buy” at $250, and JMP Securities raised its target to $315, citing Agentforce’s growth potential. On the other side, Citi analyst Tyler Radke cut his target to $188, flagging longer sales cycles, tougher renewals at Tableau and Marketing Cloud, and competitive pressure from Adobe and HubSpot. Radke expects Tableau revenue to decline 2% to 5% over the next few years. The median of 36 analysts tracked sits at $278.40.
Salesforce is not waiting for the market to make up its mind. The Summer 2026 release, rolling out on June 15, will introduce more than 50 specialized AI agents for Slack, Teams, and IT service desks — designed to interpret employee intent and resolve requests autonomously. Tableau MCP will let those agents query the analytics engine directly. The company also deepened its partnership with Pearson in May 2026, signing a multiyear deal under which Pearson will manage 80 Salesforce certifications and help measure workforce skills tied to AI adoption.
For the May 27 report, three metrics will shape the reaction: paid Agentforce usage, the trajectory of remaining performance obligations, and the full-year guidance. One day later, Salesforce holds its annual shareholder meeting. Until then, the stock sits just 7.03% above its 52-week low and 22.13% below its 200-day moving average — a technical posture that leaves little room for disappointment. The AI narrative has carried Salesforce a long way. Now the market wants to see whether it can carry the revenue line, too.
Ad
Salesforce Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Salesforce Analysis from May 17 delivers the answer:
The latest Salesforce figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Salesforce investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from May 17.
Salesforce: Buy or sell? Read more here...
