There is a peculiar disconnect playing out at Rocket Lab right now. The company’s launch manifest reads like a well-oiled production line, its government pipeline keeps thickening, and yet the share price has been cut nearly in half from its peak. Wall Street calls it a growth story under pressure; the company’s own leadership calls it a routine Tuesday.
The latest chapter unfolded on September 3, when an Electron rocket finally lifted off from Launch Complex 1 in New Zealand after two weather-related delays pushed the window back from September 1. The payload: StriX, an Earth-observation satellite for Japanese operator Synspective, delivered to a 575-kilometer orbit. It marked the 94th successful Electron mission and the 15th launch of 2026 — the 11th time Synspective has hitched a ride with Rocket Lab. Sixteen more Electron launches for the customer are already booked through 2030.
That kind of cadence is the point. Rocket Lab is no longer selling spectacle; it is selling reliability, which in the space business amounts to a genuine competitive moat.
The Bull Case Keeps Building
The operational drumbeat extends well beyond the launch pad. Rocket Lab has secured a slot in the U.S. Space Force’s NITE-STAR program, an IDIQ contract vehicle worth up to $981 million. These aren’t single purchase orders — they are recurring procurement pathways into the military’s spending cycle, precisely the kind of visibility a company needs as it pivots from pure launch provider to diversified space infrastructure player.
That award follows a separate August win: a $397 million contract from the Space Force for the SB-AMTI program, plus initial task orders worth $12 million under the Space Data Network Consortium. The backlog story is compounding.
The analyst community has taken notice, though not without some internal contradiction. Berenberg initiated coverage with a Buy rating and an $83 price target on September 2 — then upgraded to “Strong Buy” just two days later. Such a rapid escalation is rare and signals a meaningful shift in the firm’s conviction.
Bank of America is moving in the opposite direction, albeit gently. On August 31, the bank trimmed its price target from $115 to $110 while maintaining its Buy recommendation — an adjustment to recent share-price softness rather than a fundamental rethink.
Insider Selling Meets Cathie Wood’s Shopping Spree
The insider activity tells a more layered story. CFO Adam Spice has disclosed plans to sell 140,157 shares worth roughly $8.77 million through a Rule 10b5-1 plan — automated selling programs that are standard practice for U.S. executives and carry little signal about corporate confidence.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rocket Lab?
But the volume of insider transactions in late August is harder to wave off. COO Frank Klein sold 35,558 shares on August 28 at weighted average prices between $66.25 and $67.54 under a 10b5-1 plan, following a separate sell-to-cover transaction on August 24 involving 46,692 shares to satisfy tax obligations from vesting RSUs. General Counsel Arjun Kampani offloaded 6,034 shares on August 27 at prices between $66.50 and $67.16, also via a 10b5-1 plan. Marvin Bradford Clevenger, president of Rocket Lab USA, disposed of 15,051 shares on August 24 at prices ranging from $69.53 to $71.17.
Sell-to-cover transactions are tax-driven and rarely read as a confidence vote against the company. Still, the clustering of multiple executives selling within days of one another tends to catch the eye.
On the other side of the ledger sits Cathie Wood. ARK Investment Management purchased 200,300 Rocket Lab shares on September 1 and another 480,800 the following day across three ETFs — roughly $44 million in total at prevailing closing prices. The firm is buying into weakness, a deliberate contrarian bet while other investors hesitate.
The Price Action Tells a Different Story
The stock closed Friday at €55.50, up 1.1 percent on the day — a modest bright spot in an otherwise grim picture. Over the past month, shares have shed 14 percent; year-to-date, they are down nearly 10 percent. The distance from the 52-week high of €133.80 now stands at 59 percent. The RSI sits at 36.9, suggesting oversold conditions, though that alone is not a buy signal.
The gap between operational momentum and share-price performance is not random. Rocket Lab has guided for third-quarter 2026 revenue between $250 million and $265 million, with an adjusted EBITDA loss of $17 million to $23 million. GAAP gross margins are expected to land between 29 and 31 percent. This is a company still in investment mode — not yet profitable, with annualized 30-day volatility of 66 percent.
For investors, the picture is genuinely mixed: Berenberg and BofA signal fundamental confidence, ARK buys the dip, insiders cash out on schedule, and the stock keeps sliding. The next potential catalyst is the Iridium shareholder vote on the proposed acquisition, scheduled for September 24. Until then, Rocket Lab’s operational substance and its market valuation will continue to occupy different orbits.
Ad
Rocket Lab Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Rocket Lab Analysis from September 5 delivers the answer:
The latest Rocket Lab figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Rocket Lab investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from September 5.
Rocket Lab: Buy or sell? Read more here...
