Shares of quantum computing developer Rigetti Computing experienced a notable pullback on Wednesday, shedding approximately 5% to trade around the $25 level. This retreat occurred against a backdrop of recently confirmed positive analyst sentiment, serving as a clear illustration of the inherent volatility currently characterizing the quantum technology sector.
A Disconnect Between Valuation and Revenue
A significant challenge for Rigetti is the stark contrast between its market valuation and its operational performance. The company commands a market capitalization of $8.9 billion, a figure that appears disconnected from its recent financial results. For the third quarter of 2025, Rigetti generated revenue of just $1.9 million, representing a 21% decline compared to the prior year. This shortfall has been attributed to delayed funding releases by the U.S. government under the National Quantum Initiative.
On a positive note, the firm has secured orders worth $5.7 million for its 9-qubit “Novera” system. However, these revenues are not expected to be recognized on the balance sheet until the first half of 2026. Consequently, the gap between the company’s stock market worth and its actual earnings persists, providing a focal point for skeptical investors.
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Upcoming Milestones Are Critical
The early months of 2026 are poised to be decisive for Rigetti. Two major milestones are scheduled: first, the delivery of its announced 100-qubit system, which was initially targeted for late 2025. Second, the quarterly financial reports for Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 will be crucial in demonstrating whether the booked Novera orders successfully translate into recognized revenue. From a chart perspective, the stock is currently navigating a support zone near $25. A sustained recovery above the $28 mark would be necessary to signal a resumption of its prior upward trend.
Market Experts Maintain a Bullish Stance
Despite the share price weakness, analyst outlooks remain largely favorable. An updated consensus study published by MarketBeat on Wednesday morning revealed that, of nine covering analysts, six recommend buying the shares, two advise holding, and only one suggests selling. The average price target among them stands at $31.22, implying a potential upside of roughly 24% from current levels.
One particularly optimistic view comes from Wedbush. The investment bank reaffirmed an “Outperform” rating on December 17, accompanied by a $35 price target. Its analysts argue that Rigetti’s vertically integrated approach—spanning from chip design to complete systems—provides the company with a technological edge in the emerging quantum marketplace.
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