The disconnect between Rheinmetall’s order book and its share price has rarely been starker. New contracts keep landing — autonomous military convoys, decoy launchers for Kuwait, laser weapon systems for the German navy — yet the stock continues to slide, trading at €961.40 on Wednesday, down 1.39% from the previous close. Since the start of the year, the Düsseldorf-based defense group has lost nearly 40% of its market value, with the equity now worth €46.23 billion.
The immediate cause is the fallout from the scrapped F126 frigate program. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius pulled the plug on the multi-billion-euro project in June 2026, citing cost overruns and delivery delays. Rheinmetall had been in line to serve as prime contractor for a contract valued at up to €12.8 billion, but the cancellation prompted an intraday share plunge of as much as 13% when it became public. Now the company is quantifying the damage: in an ad-hoc announcement on 2 July, it flagged potential revenue shortfalls of up to €300 million for the current financial year from its program stake alone.
The political fallout continues to reverberate. Damen Shipyards, the Dutch builder originally contracted for the F126 and based in Vlissingen, has accused Pistorius of acting unlawfully, calling the decision “hasty and arbitrary” and lacking any legal justification. Lawyer Peter Gauweiler is exploring compensation claims on the yard’s behalf. The procurement office, Damen claims, had signalled that the project would proceed until the very end — without any formal ultimatum or warning.
What makes the sell-off all the more striking is the pace at which Rheinmetall is expanding. Operations are humming: the new plant in Unterlüß, Lower Saxony, has just shipped its first batch of 155 mm artillery shells — RH1412 rounds and propellant charges — to Ukraine, with more than half already delivered and the rest due by year-end. The company is targeting annual production of 1.5 million 155 mm shells by 2030, and at the same site it is working with Lockheed Martin on ATACMS missile manufacturing.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
In a separate initiative, Rheinmetall has signed a letter of intent with Space Norway to collaborate on space-based maritime surveillance. The partnership aims to combine Norway’s C-band SAR satellites with Rheinmetall’s own X-band SPOCK-1 system, building monitoring capabilities for Germany and its allies, particularly in the Arctic and North Atlantic — part of the broader Hansa agreement between the two countries.
Rheinmetall MAN Military Vehicles, meanwhile, has taken over project management of “InterRoC VII”, a Bundeswehr research contract awarded on Tuesday to develop highly automated convoys that can operate with fewer drivers, reducing risk to soldiers in contested zones. The deal marks a further step away from pure munitions and hardware toward AI-driven and robotic solutions — a space where NATO allies are pouring money.
Yet none of this is translating into share price support. Technically, the stock looks deeply oversold: the relative strength index stands at 34.6, while the share trades 15.87% below its 50-day moving average and 36.18% below the 200-day line. The annualised 30-day volatility of 68.94% underscores the level of anxiety among investors. Having hit a 52-week low of €902.50 on 25 June, the stock is now just 6.53% above that floor — and 51.81% below its all-time high of €1,995.00 from September 2025.
Analyst commentary is thin, though a price target of €1,800 has been floated in online investor forums — a level that looks distant from current trading and carries no official backing. The real test comes on 6 August, when Rheinmetall publishes its second-quarter results. Investors will be looking for a clear plan to offset the F126 shortfall and for evidence that the heavy capital spending on new factories is translating into stronger free cash flow. Until then, operational milestones are taking a back seat to the biggest question hanging over the stock: whether the German defence procurement system can give the market enough certainty to justify the valuation the company’s growth story once commanded.
Ad
Rheinmetall Stock: Buy or Sell?! New Rheinmetall Analysis from July 15 delivers the answer:
The latest Rheinmetall figures speak for themselves: Urgent action needed for Rheinmetall investors. Is it worth buying or should you sell? Find out what to do now in the current free analysis from July 15.
Rheinmetall: Buy or sell? Read more here...
