Armin Papperger took the stage at Hannover Messe with a clear message: Rheinmetall’s production machine is firing on all cylinders, and the cost of doing business in defense is coming down. Yet the company’s stock is trading near its 52-week low, caught in a tug-of-war between booming fundamentals and a skeptical market.
The disconnect is stark. The Düsseldorf-based defense contractor has seen its artillery shell output surge more than tenfold since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, with some projects launched on nothing more than a handshake. Papperger argues that economies of scale are now kicking in — artillery ammunition is cheaper today than it was five or six years ago, and further price declines are expected as order volumes from Berlin and other European capitals continue to climb.
To keep the supply chain humming, Rheinmetall is sitting on roughly €8 billion worth of critical inventory. It’s a drag on working capital and free cash flow, but the CEO calls it a strategic necessity.
The Numbers Tell One Story, the Price Tells Another
For 2026, management is targeting group revenue of €14.0 billion to €14.5 billion — a 40% to 45% jump from the prior year — with an operating margin of around 19%. Crucially, 91% of that projected top line is already locked in under existing contracts.
The share price, however, has been moving in the opposite direction. At roughly €1,366, the stock is down nearly 15% since the start of the year and about 31% below its autumn 2024 peak. It’s trading below its 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, with the 52-week low of €1,357 just a hair’s breadth away.
Wall Street, by contrast, is piling on the optimism. Jefferies lifted its price target on April 20 from €2,020 to €2,220, while Bernstein, Berenberg, Deutsche Bank, and Barclays have all reaffirmed buy ratings. The consensus analyst target stands at roughly €2,129 — implying upside of nearly 50% from current levels.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Rheinmetall?
Two Key Dates in May
All eyes now turn to May 7, when Rheinmetall publishes its first-quarter 2026 results. Analysts are looking for earnings per share of €39.61 — a staggering 166% increase over the full-year 2025 figure. The focus will be on order intake and margin trends, with investors looking for evidence that the ambitious full-year targets are on track.
Five days later, on May 12, the company holds its annual general meeting. The board is proposing a dividend of €11.50 per share — a 42% increase from last year’s €8.10 and the fourth consecutive hike. Shareholders must hold the stock through the close of trading on May 12 to qualify for the payout, which will be paid on May 15.
A CEO’s Paycheck and a Protester’s Chant
The Hannover Messe appearance wasn’t without disruption. Protesters interrupted the event multiple times with chants against war and conscription, and security personnel had to remove several hecklers. The expansion of defense production remains a socially charged issue in Germany — a reality the company can’t ignore.
Meanwhile, Papperger’s own compensation has become a talking point. According to calculations by the Handelsblatt Research Institute, the CEO earned over €10 million in 2025 — two and a half times his previous year’s pay — placing him sixth among the best-paid executives in the DAX.
Rheinmetall is also pushing into civilian technology. At the trade fair, it demonstrated remote-controlled vehicles piloted from Hannover to Düsseldorf, and a pilot project with Rheinbahn AG will launch a teleoperated shuttle at Düsseldorf Airport in May 2026. It’s a reminder that the company’s ambitions extend beyond artillery shells and armored vehicles.
Whether the first-quarter report can close the gap between analyst enthusiasm and market skepticism remains the open question. For now, Rheinmetall’s fundamentals are firing on all cylinders — but the stock is still waiting for the all-clear.
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