The shares of Strategy, the company formerly known as MicroStrategy, are caught in a powerful crosscurrent. On one side, a stabilizing Bitcoin price provides a foundation. On the other, a looming regulatory proposal from index provider MSCI threatens to force billions in institutional selling. This precise tension is fueling significant volatility for the stock.
The MSCI Proposal: A Potential $15 Billion Overhang
Currently, the most substantial pressure point stems from MSCI. The global index giant is considering a rule change that would exclude companies holding cryptocurrencies exceeding 50% of their total balance sheet assets from key benchmarks. Strategy, with its explicit Bitcoin treasury focus and holdings of over 671,000 BTC, would be directly impacted.
The implications extend far beyond a simple index exclusion, raising the specter of forced liquidations:
* Initial estimates pointed to potential selling pressure of approximately $8.8 billion directed specifically at Strategy.
* The industry group BitcoinForCorporations now projects the total selling effect across all affected stocks could reach $10 to $15 billion.
* Market analysts highlight a widening disconnect between the company’s operational execution and this external liquidity risk.
CEO Michael Saylor has warned that such a rule could create “chaos, confusion, and profoundly harmful consequences” for investors seeking diversified exposure through indices. Despite recent price declines, there are no indications Strategy intends to alter its core Bitcoin accumulation strategy.
Bitcoin’s Rebound Offers Temporary Respite
The stock continues to exhibit high sensitivity to movements in its primary Bitcoin holdings. After a slide toward the $85,000 zone on Thursday, Bitcoin staged a notable recovery Friday morning. Reclaiming levels around $88,000 acts as a crucial support mechanism for Strategy, whose shares traditionally move with leveraged effect to the dominant cryptocurrency.
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This stabilization attempt follows a roughly 32% correction from Bitcoin’s October 2025 all-time high. For Strategy, the rebound offers near-term relief, even as the overarching narrative remains dominated by a severe decline since the start of the year.
Market Reaction and Valuation Shifts
This dual narrative is reflected in the share price action. On Friday, the equity managed to advance 3.96% to €140.50, pulling away from the 52-week low marked the previous day. However, it remains down more than 55% over a twelve-month horizon. A distance of roughly 64% from its 52-week high, coupled with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading above 80, signals a potent mix: a powerful longer-term downtrend and a potentially overextended short-term countermove.
A key valuation dynamic is also at play. Historically, Strategy traded at a premium to its net asset value (NAV), which represents the calculated worth of its Bitcoin treasury and core business. The threat of index-driven outflows has dramatically compressed this premium. Should MSCI decide to dilute or abandon its proposed rule change, this compressed valuation gap could create room for a significant upward re-rating.
Forward Outlook: Three Critical Catalysts
The investment case for Strategy, as a publicly-traded Bitcoin vehicle, faces several imminent tests. Three primary triggers will be decisive in the coming weeks:
- The MSCI Verdict: The consultation period for the new index rules is nearing its conclusion. A final decision is anticipated by early in the first quarter of 2026. The outcome will have immediate consequences for the composition of institutional ownership.
- Bitcoin’s Key Level: In crypto markets, the $85,000 area remains a pivotal support zone. A sustained break below it would increase the likelihood of a retreat toward the April lows near $74,400, thereby amplifying pressure on Strategy’s share price.
- The Stock’s Technical Footing: In the near term, stabilization well above recent lows would signal that the market is no longer pricing the MSCI risk aggressively. The current rebound from the weekly low serves as an initial test for this thesis.
Ultimately, the trajectory for Strategy shares is tightly linked to two variables: the policy direction set by MSCI and Bitcoin’s ability to defend its recently recovered support levels.
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