Plug Power shares have surged more than 30% since the start of the year, a rally fueled by cautious optimism that the hydrogen specialist is finally tightening its operations. The stock currently trades at 2.36 EUR, still about 33% below its 52-week high, but the recent momentum sets the stage for a pivotal first-quarter earnings report. All eyes are on new CEO Jose Luis Crespo, who took the helm on March 2, 2026, to prove his strategy of operational discipline over growth at any cost is working.
The company’s fundamental story shows genuine, if fragile, improvement. A key milestone was reached in the fourth quarter of 2025, where Plug Power posted a positive gross profit of $5.5 million, translating to a gross margin of 2.4%. This marks a dramatic reversal from the same period a year earlier, which saw a deeply negative margin of -122.5%. Internal cost-cutting is also taking effect, with the annual cash burn reduced by roughly a quarter. The company ended last year with approximately $368 million in liquid assets.
Despite these strides, the path to sustained profitability remains steep and contentious among analysts. Susquehanna, represented by analyst Charles Minervino, recently raised its price target to $2.75 from $2.50 while maintaining a Neutral rating. The bank cited the fundamental progress seen in the last fiscal year. In stark contrast, Jefferies moved in the opposite direction, cutting its target to $1.80 from $2.00. The firm labels Plug Power’s journey a “show-me story,” expressing skepticism about the new management’s ability to convert an $8 billion sales funnel into profitable revenue without further diluting shareholders.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Plug Power?
The risk of dilution is a pressing concern for investors. In February 2026, shareholders approved a doubling of authorized common shares from 1.5 billion to 3 billion. This move creates flexibility for future capital raises but carries significant potential for ownership dilution. This wariness is reflected in institutional action, with Tudor Investment Corp slashing its position by 63.6% in the last quarter.
Operationally, the company is pushing ahead with scaling its business. It recently secured its largest electrolyzer order to date: a contract for a 275-megawatt system destined for a project in Quebec, with commissioning slated for 2029. To shore up its cash position, Plug Power is selling its “Project Gateway” land in New York to Stream Data Centers for a minimum of $132.5 million. This transaction is part of a broader $275 million infrastructure initiative.
Management is sticking to ambitious targets, aiming for positive adjusted EBITDA by the end of 2026 and full profitability by the close of 2028. A near-term test arrives tomorrow, April 21, as Plug Power opens its Louisiana hydrogen production plant for an investor tour. The company must demonstrate that its plan to scale production to 40 tons of liquid hydrogen per day is both technically and economically viable. The upcoming Q1 results will reveal if the margin recovery has legs and if CEO Crespo’s first full quarter in charge can begin to quiet the skeptics.
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