In the span of seven days, Planet Labs lost nearly a third of its market value — a 31.4% plunge triggered by a $1.5 billion at-the-market equity offering. Yet the satellite imagery company’s business fundamentals tell a sharply different story, and analysts are rushing to raise their price targets.
First-quarter revenue hit $94.2 million, a 42% year-over-year surge that beat expectations. Adjusted EBITDA came in at a loss of just $1 million, placing breakeven within sight. The order backlog expanded 72% to $906 million, fueled by a 65-68% jump in defense-related contracts. Among the recent wins: an eight-figure renewal with the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and a $7.5 million extension with the U.S. Navy.
Craig-Hallum led the charge, hiking its target from $36 to $49 while reiterating a buy. Needham and Clear Street went further, setting a $53 target. Northland Capital Markets issued an outperform rating with a $50 target. The consensus view: the selloff was an overreaction to the ATM program, which actually positions the company to execute its $906 million backlog.
Planet Labs has transformed from a satellite builder into a data platform. More than 90% of revenue now comes from subscriptions, providing predictable cash flows and higher margins. The customer base spans agriculture, defense, environmental monitoring, and government intelligence. The commercial Earth-observation market is projected to reach €13 billion by 2034.
The upcoming launch of the Pelican-11 satellite marks a technological leap. It will carry Nvidia AI processors capable of real-time data analysis in orbit, bypassing ground stations. Planet Labs markets this capability as “Sovereign Intelligence,” particularly targeting European government clients, where EMEA revenue grew 86%.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Planet Labs PBC?
The stock, which tumbled as low as €28.40, has recovered to €29.20 — still 37% below the 52-week high of €46.60 hit in late May, though far above the December low of €14.03. The relative strength index oscillated from 35.2 up to 37.2, brushing the oversold threshold. The shares trade roughly 15% below their 50-day moving average of €33.34, and the analyst consensus target of €34.49 implies a 21% upside from recent levels. The 30-day annualized volatility stands at 109.79%, underscoring the extreme price swings. Yet year-to-date, the stock remains up 63%.
For fiscal 2026, management guided revenue of $425 million to $441 million. The company expects to reach EBITDA profitability during the current fiscal year, a milestone that would further validate the subscription-based model.
The broader space sector could get a jolt from SpaceX’s planned IPO on June 12, at a valuation around $1.77 trillion. That listing may serve as a revaluation anchor for the entire satellite industry, drawing institutional attention to smaller players like Planet Labs.
With a $906 million backlog, accelerating defense sales, and a path to breakeven, Planet Labs presents a case where share price and operational momentum have diverged. The next quarterly report will test whether the underlying growth story can reclaim the narrative from the volatility.
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