The co-founder of Partners Group has just spent millions buying his own stock, yet the shares are plumbing depths not seen in half a decade. They hit a five-year low of €731.40 on 19 June and slid further to €728.80 on Monday, a new 52-week trough. That contradiction captures the peculiar moment for the Swiss private‑equity manager as it fends off a short‑seller attack, grapples with forced redemption limits on its flagship fund, and braces for a pivotal disclosure on 15 July.
The trouble began in late April when US firm Grizzly Research released a 37‑page report alleging that up to 40% of the assets in Partners Group’s evergreen funds could be materially overvalued. Management dismissed the claims as defamatory and launched legal proceedings, but the market’s judgment was harsh. Short interest has since risen to around 8% of outstanding shares, a 28% increase in a month, and the company’s market capitalisation has evaporated by roughly 20 billion Swiss francs over the past twelve months.
Matters escalated in early June when Partners Group capped redemptions from its $8.6 billion Global Value SICAV at 5% of net asset value per quarter. With withdrawal requests estimated at 9.8%, the move effectively locked out investors, especially the retail clients who represent about one‑fifth of the fund’s assets. The firm now warns that the evergreen platform will shave one to two percentage points off net AuM growth in the second half of 2026, with similar headwinds expected the following year.
Management has responded with structural changes. On 21 May it unveiled a “Total Return Strategy” that reduces leverage, extends holding periods to as long as twelve years, and targets regular distributions. Software exposure already sits below half the industry average. More radically, the board is proposing to split the London‑listed investment trust into two share classes – a permanent investment share and a realisation share capped at roughly €250 million. Shareholders will vote on the plan at an extraordinary general meeting in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Partners Group?
Perhaps the strongest vote of confidence came last week when six employees, including co‑founder Fredy Gantner, bought shares worth more than CHF 5.29 million in a single week. Gantner called the market reaction overblown and pointed to a record financial year, though he conceded that Partners Group must “definitely communicate better and more proactively” going forward. The dividend for 2025 stands at CHF 46.00 per share, and FactSet estimates put the forward yield at around 6.56% for 2026 – the highest in the Swiss large‑ and mid‑cap index. That record is backed by 20 consecutive years of dividend payments, with 17 increases.
Analyst opinion remains split. Octavian rates the stock a buy with a price target of CHF 1,175, while Bank of America and Jefferies both rate it a hold with targets of CHF 850 and CHF 760 respectively. Earnings per share forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been slashed by 10% to 22% across houses, reflecting weaker AuM growth and declining performance fees. On the technical side, the relative strength index has sunk to 25.9 – deep into oversold territory – and annualised volatility sits at 53%. The current price of €731.00 is nearly 40% below the 52‑week high and roughly 28% below the 200‑day moving average.
The immediate chart risk is a sustained break below Monday’s low of €728.80, which could trigger further selling. Yet the real catalyst arrives on 15 July, when Partners Group reports assets under management as of 30 June. That release will reveal how much the redemption wave has already eroded the fee base and whether the fund‑raising outlook for the second half of the year still holds. For a company that has lost a third of its equity value in 2025 alone, the next data point cannot come soon enough.
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