Oracle is asking federal regulators to move faster on the Green Chile Pipeline, warning that further delays could push back the timeline for its planned AI data center campus in New Mexico. The company made the case in a letter cited by Bloomberg, with a subsidiary of Energy Transfer slated to operate the natural gas line.
The request underscores how tightly the Project Jupiter campus is bound to its energy supply. Oracle has said the Bloom Energy fuel-cell microgrid remains the primary power source for the site, but the pipeline approval still matters because it feeds into the broader conditions required to run the facility.
Oracle has already flagged the risk to its financing partner. According to Reuters, the company delivered a force majeure notice to a Blue Owl subsidiary on September 24, citing potential delays in power supply.
At the same time, Oracle maintains that Project Jupiter remains on schedule. That distinction matters: a warning about possible future slippage is not the same as a confirmed delay of the full campus, and the outstanding permit is not resolved simply because analysts remain constructive.
A $13 Billion Regional Projection — and What It Doesn’t Say
Oracle expects Project Jupiter to generate a total economic impact of more than $13 billion in New Mexico. The forecast, released yesterday, covers the construction phase plus the first 17 years of full operations. The company attributes the updated figure to revised assumptions on jobs and investment.
That number describes the anticipated economic effect on the state, not a revenue or earnings projection for Oracle itself. The gap between the two is central to how investors should read the announcement: a regional economic benefit does not answer when the project will actually deliver revenue and cash flow to Oracle. Credit analysts have pointed to the timing question in particular, flagging risks from possible power-supply delays.
Power Plan Comes With Asterisks
Alongside the economic forecast, Oracle proposed a power agreement with El Paso Electric. Under the proposal, the company would pay $10 million annually over a ten-year period.
The arrangement is a proposal, not a signed contract. Oracle also stated that the Bloom Energy fuel-cell microgrid stays the primary power source for the project, meaning the proposed El Paso Electric supply does not replace that planned main feed.
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The proposal additionally includes annual customer bill credits of up to $55 million, to apply for a period of up to three years. Oracle is effectively pairing its planned power purchase with relief for other customers. For investors, both the proposal status and the caps matter: the announced terms should not yet be treated as finalized obligations.
Credit Warnings Meet an Unchanged Analyst Call
On Monday, Morgan Stanley credit analysts Lindsay Tyler and Benjamin Guerrero cautioned that power-related delays at Oracle’s data center projects could push revenue and cash flow into later periods. At the same time, capital expenditures and lease obligations could be compressed into fewer quarters. Their assessment addresses credit risk rather than the equity rating, but it highlights the difference between an expected project impact and actual financial execution.
Mizuho, by contrast, is holding its ground. The research house reaffirmed an “Outperform” rating and a $320 price target today, and said it does not expect the open permits to affect its estimates for Oracle’s fiscal 2027. In other words, the analysts continue to view the data center progress positively even though the energy supply still has to clear regulatory hurdles.
The stock told a different story: Oracle shares fell 6.7% today, with attention again focused on power supply, construction timeline and financing risks for the New Mexico project. The gap between the analyst view and the market reaction comes down largely to differing assessments of execution risk.
$664 Billion in Backlog, and a Date to Watch
Oracle reported more than $30 billion in additional AI cloud contracts for the first quarter of fiscal 2027. Remaining performance obligations — the backlog measure — reached $664 billion. Those figures describe contracted demand, not revenue already collected. For shareholders, the decisive question is whether Oracle can bring the necessary capacity online in time. That is precisely where the strong order book and the unresolved infrastructure questions intersect.
The next scheduled event is an investor day on October 28, 2026. Commentary on capacity delivery, energy supply and financing will be the key items for framing the stock.
Mizuho’s unchanged estimates offer a counterweight to the project concerns, but they do not amount to a regulatory all-clear. The central test remains whether Oracle can convert its substantial contractual commitments into operating performance without damaging delays.
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