A potential shift in U.S. export policy could pave the way for Nvidia to re-enter the crucial Chinese market, providing a significant catalyst for the company’s shares. This development coincides with analysis from Wall Street suggesting the stock’s current valuation presents a compelling opportunity, despite its recent performance.
Wall Street Sees Value in Current Price Levels
Analysts are drawing attention to Nvidia’s valuation metrics. Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon noted that the stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio below 25. This places its valuation in the lowest 11th percentile of its range over the past decade. Rasgon characterized the equity as “cheaper than almost ever” relative to its growth prospects, further highlighting that it trades at an approximate 13% discount to the broader semiconductor index.
In a separate move, Tigress Financial significantly raised its price target for Nvidia to $350, reiterating a buy recommendation. This new target implies substantial upside potential from current trading levels.
U.S. Authorities Consider Easing Chip Export Restrictions
The primary driver of recent optimism stems from reports of a potential policy review. According to Friday reports, an interagency process has been initiated that could lead to the renewed approval of sales for Nvidia’s high-performance H200 AI chips to China. These chips, which succeed the Blackwell architecture and feature substantial memory capacity, were previously blocked due to national security concerns.
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Any potential compromise, however, is expected to include financial conditions. A proposed 25% fee on such transactions is under discussion. The U.S. Commerce Department has already forwarded relevant license applications to the Departments of Defense and State for a standard 30-day consultation period. Market observers interpret this procedural step as an indication that Nvidia might regain access to a major revenue stream, despite ongoing warnings from critics about potential military applications by China.
Strategic Global Expansion Continues
Separate from these regulatory developments, Nvidia continues to build out its global operational footprint. The company confirmed plans to construct a new headquarters facility in Kiryat Tivon, Israel. Designed to serve as a “second home” alongside its Silicon Valley base, the complex will have capacity for more than 10,000 employees. This investment underscores the firm’s commitment to research and development capabilities outside the United States.
A positive outcome from the U.S. government’s 30-day review, resulting in approval for H200 chip exports, would open a significant revenue channel. The combination of a potential regulatory thaw and a historically moderate valuation has supported positive momentum, with shares advancing 1.29% to over €152 in recent trading.
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