Nvidia is rewriting its growth playbook, and the market is still trying to decide whether the new plot is a thriller or a slow-burn drama. The chip giant, valued at roughly €4.15 trillion, has launched a sweeping pivot away from one-off hardware sales toward recurring revenue streams — a shift that has left the stock down 16% from its May high and trading at €168.94 after a 2.76% drop on Thursday alone.
The transformation is unmistakable. Instead of simply selling graphics processors for cash upfront, Nvidia is increasingly acting as a financier and landlord of the AI infrastructure it builds. Startups such as Sharon AI and Firmus Technologies now get access to thousands of Blackwell GB300 or Grace-Blackwell chips without prepaying. In return, Nvidia takes a slice of their cloud revenue — effectively turning silicon into a long-duration yield instrument.
This new model is already visible in scale. Sharon AI plans to deploy up to 40,000 Grace-Blackwell units, while in Indonesia, a 360-megawatt project with Firmus Technologies is set to house as many as 170,000 GPUs. The objective is clear: replace lump-sum hardware margins with a recurring, usage-linked income stream that cushions the cyclical swings. Nvidia’s annualized 30-day volatility currently stands at around 39%, a level that underscores the urgency of stabilizing earnings.
Government procurement is emerging as a second pillar of the strategy. In fiscal 2026, sovereign AI contracts with Canada, France, Singapore and the UK are expected to contribute roughly $30 billion in revenue. A high-profile partnership with Palantir aims to deliver ultra-secure AI environments to the US government, while the European Union is revising its Chips Act to favour local companies in strategic projects. The narrative of national AI sovereignty is moving from white paper to concrete infrastructure.
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But the transition is not without friction. EU antitrust authorities have widened their investigation into the definition and comparability of data-centre components, adding a layer of regulatory uncertainty. Combined with a broader rotation out of technology names, this scrutiny has contributed to the stock’s recent slide. Over the past 30 days, Nvidia has lost 11.82%, widening from an earlier decline of nearly 8% in the same timeframe as the sell-off accelerated.
Technically, the shares are testing critical support. They now sit just 2.95% above the 200-day moving average of €164.10, while the 50-day line sits roughly 6% above the current price. The relative strength index has dipped into the low 40s — one reading puts it at 40.3, another at 41.7 — a zone that some chart-watchers consider oversold. The quarterly dividend of $0.25 per share offers modest comfort, but the real focus remains on whether the business-model overhaul can deliver the earnings stability the market demands.
Analysts still see substantial upside. The average price target stands at €263.63, implying a potential gain of 56.1% from current levels. Hitting that target, however, will require Nvidia to demonstrate that it can sustain year-over-year revenue growth of around 50% as it rolls out the Vera-Rubin platform in the second half of 2026. The question is less about the strategic direction and more about execution speed: can Nvidia convert its hardware lead into recurring service revenue quickly enough to dispel the doubts that have emerged over the past month? The stock’s next move will likely depend on the answer.
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