Nvidia heads into its SIGGRAPH 2026 keynote on Monday with a stock that is treading water — up nearly 11% year to date but sitting 2.4% below its 50-day moving average. The artificial intelligence chipmaker is juggling two very different narratives: a high-profile product showcase in Los Angeles and a China export program that, for all its headline-grabbing license approvals, has produced almost no actual shipments.
The company’s main presentation at the conference, scheduled for 3:45 p.m. Pacific Time on July 20, will be led by research directors Neil Ashton, Edward Liu and Ming-Yu Liu. They are expected to detail advances in neural rendering, World Models, and simulation techniques — some of which were themselves generated by AI. The three executives will argue that these technologies are reshaping digital worlds for industries ranging from creative design to autonomous systems. Later in the week, Nvidia will dedicate a day to physical AI and another to RTX rendering, the latter highlighting its RTX-PRO platform for visual effects and virtual production.
That forward-looking agenda contrasts sharply with the reality of the company’s China business. Washington approved export licenses for H200 chips worth an estimated $10 billion last December under President Trump, but senior Commerce Department official Jeffrey Kessler told a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing that only a “trivial” number of shipments have actually taken place. The mismatch between authorization and execution is stark: Chinese regulators are actively discouraging domestic companies from buying American chips, fearing a flood of imports could gut local semiconductor ambitions. Even when purchases do occur, Beijing imposes a 25% surcharge and requires verified buyer status, a rule formalized in January.
Nvidia itself has tightened the spigot. The company has more than halved its list of authorized Asian customers, implementing a new “whitelist” that demands far stricter compliance checks in Singapore, Malaysia and Japan. More than half of the current client base failed the first round of screening, though reapplication remains an option. The goal is to prevent chips from reaching China through indirect channels, but the practical effect is that the H200 corridor remains largely sealed.
Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nvidia?
The stock closed Friday at €177.46, a 2.14% decline on the day and a 3.97% drop for the week. That leaves it 12.37% below the 52-week high of €202.50 reached on May 14. The weakness is technical rather than fundamental, according to most analysts. KeyBanc’s John Vinh reiterated his Overweight rating on July 14 and raised his price target to $330 from $310, citing resolved heat issues with the Vera Rubin architecture and a ramp in production starting this month. Vinh expects Nvidia to compensate for any near-term constraints by shifting more B300 GPUs instead of R200 chips. A 69% increase in the 2027 CoWoS capacity forecast — now pegged at 1.1 million interposers — underscores the sustained demand outlook.
Of 53 analysts tracked by MarketBeat, 48 rate Nvidia a Buy and two a Strong Buy; only three recommend Hold. The average price target stands at $303.84, well above the current euro equivalent. The stock remains above its 200-day moving average of €165.34, suggesting the long-term trend is still intact despite the recent pullback.
The next catalyst may come with the quarterly earnings report, expected on August 26, which will offer a clearer view of Blackwell demand and the Vera Rubin timeline. Until then, the company’s story is one of competing forces: a SIGGRAPH stage filled with generative AI and simulation breakthroughs, and a China strategy that, despite a $10 billion stamp of approval, has yet to deliver anything more than a trickle.
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